Trump’s Return: Reshaping the Global Landscape
the return of Donald trump to the White House has sent shockwaves across the globe, prompting intense speculation about its implications for international politics. From Russia’s hopes for a shift in the Ukraine conflict to China’s anxieties about a potential trade war, nations are grappling with the complexities of a perhaps reshaped world order.
While initial euphoria surrounding Trump’s election victory has subsided, his pre-election promises of a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict remain unfulfilled. Oleg Barabanov, Professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences and director of the Valdai Club program, offers insightful analysis of the current situation. As reported by URA.RU, the experience of trump’s first term highlights the limitations even a president faces when confronted with resistance from the established governmental apparatus. Even with a more favorable Republican majority in Congress,notable shifts in American foreign policy are unlikely. “The mechanism will continue to hinder Trump’s initiatives, especially those that could worsen relations with NATO allies,” Barabanov notes.
Trump’s proposed solutions for the Ukraine conflict have been met with skepticism in both Moscow and Kyiv. His suggestions for a ceasefire and a 20-year delay in Ukraine’s NATO accession have failed to garner support from either side. Vladimir Putin has publicly rejected such a truce, viewing it as a mere postponement of further conflict. Currently, there’s a significant lack of common ground between the positions of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States under Trump’s leadership.
Adding to the complexity, pressure on Russia is mounting, especially from China. Beijing is advocating for an immediate ceasefire, promoting a Sino-Brazilian peace plan, and strongly opposing any rhetoric involving nuclear weapons—a stance that surprisingly aligns with the United States. China’s apprehension stems from a fear that Trump’s pressure will primarily target Beijing, not Moscow. This potential convergence of US and Chinese interests could significantly increase pressure on Russia, potentially leading to a complex geopolitical game of leverage.
Russia, meanwhile, is actively promoting a multipolar world order, viewing it as a means to bolster its foreign policy influence. However, many nations in the Global South, including China, are adopting a more cautious approach. There’s a reluctance to openly challenge the established world order, fearing a repetition of Russia’s experience. Even within BRICS, aside from iran, nations are carefully observing proposals for financial reforms and de-dollarization. China, in particular, is hesitant to make the yuan the world’s reserve currency, wary of potential political and economic repercussions.
In response to warnings from China and the Global South, Russia is forging its own autonomous axis, uniting nations that have openly defied Western norms, including Iran, Venezuela, Belarus, and North Korea. Though, a clear distinction exists between Russia’s more radical stance and the more moderate positions of other players in the multipolar world. Russia remains the moast assertive actor,maintaining a distance from even its less confrontational critics in the West.
The current conflict between Russia and the US bears resemblance to the Cold War, yet with crucial differences. While the threat of nuclear conflict remains a deterrent, the West increasingly views such threats as largely rhetorical. Americans have learned that many of Russia’s “red lines” are often ambiguous. While Trump might revisit decisions on long-range missiles, the overall trajectory of US policy toward the conflict remains largely unchanged.
Drawing ancient parallels, Barabanov emphasizes that the tensions of 1983, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear catastrophe, were far greater then today’s. He states definitively, “In 1983 Andropov pushed the button. That’s for sure. There would be no doubt or question.”
