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Andrey Raichev Staff: New TV
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“If a government is not formed now, the worst consequence could be a radical change such as a presidential republic. At first the Bulgarian will be happy, but then he will not be able to overthrow it,” Andrei Raichev said in an interview with Deutsche Welle. .
SG: Mr. Raichev, we are going to the elections for the third time this year – and in the conditions of an unprecedented health crisis. How will the pandemic affect electoral attitudes?
Andrey Raichev: This is a question that is difficult for me to answer. This crisis is the third of its kind and is beginning to seem eternal. It is polarized between two unpleasant extremes – a super-protective policy against fascist and conspiracy theories. Society is bristly and cowardly. Restaurants are empty not because there are measures, but because people are afraid of them. Last time, this wave of fear liquidated the protests. If we can assume anything, it will be to the detriment of the protesters.
DV: Is all this a threat to Rumen Radev?
Raichev: In any case, it is a difficulty. His distance is very long, he leads twice. But in the second round, and there will be 99 percent, the MRF will overflow – that’s another 300,000 votes. His election seemed hassle-free, it doesn’t look like it now. But the word endangered is too strong.
DV: Is there a chance for anti-systemic parties? We talked about “Vazrazhdane” even before the last two votes.
Raichev: This is a mystery. I don’t know why they call them anti-system – they are completely systemic, but from a different system. There is a chance. Especially if the activity is low – they will enter.
DV: Let’s also talk about “We continue the change”: their profile largely corresponds to that of the so-called urban right, but they managed to expand their support much more. Where do they get approval from?
Raichev: I don’t think their profile is like that of “Democratic Bulgaria”. “Democratic Bulgaria” is a classic right, largely anti-communist. This is declining, but they are originally anti-communists. The two new boys do not fit into this hypothesis at all.
The center, and Borissov is like that, can be stormed from the left and from the right, but unsuccessfully. Cornelia Ninova stormed him from the left for a very long time, but she did not win. Then the right stormed him with Rosenets and the protests for almost a year. And yet they failed to overthrow him. The reason is that the center cannot be torn down by one of the wings, but only if they unite. “We continue the change” do this – left-wing goals with right-wing politics. That is – both. Such an attempt was made by Maya Manolova in the mayoral election, then in her party formation with Hadjigenov and Babikyan, but it never happened. the right-wing mayor was afraid to support the so-called “communist”, in the second case IBGNI exchanged too many sparks with each other on the subject of left and right.
“We continue the change” make an authentic union and get a very serious influx from the left – people who are not happy with the BSP, but are red. This is about 1-1.2 million people in Bulgaria. Apart from the right-wingers, who like them in terms of their yuppie nature, left-wing voters also go to them.
DV: Is it possible that a government will not be formed this time as well?
Raichev: I am of the opinion of Ivan Krastev. He said: “This will be a collective suicide of the Bulgarian political system.”
DV: Why? What are the risks of such a scenario?
Raichev: Huge and unpredictable – a wave of disgust, non-participation in new elections, the emergence of fascist parties. I hope no one comes up with the idea and the third attempt does not lead to a government. Whatever compromises they make will be incomparable to what they would otherwise cause the state. Bulgaria has been living with a government without a legislative option for six months. This creates technological problems. We live without a parliament. The worst consequence could be a radical change such as a presidential republic. The Bulgarian loves single power, but in stages. He will be happy for the first few years, but then he won’t be able to take it off.
DV: Looking at the forecasts: what is the biggest drama and where can we expect surprises?
Raichev: The drama consists of the following. No matter how scattered the forecasts are, no one gives less than 30% to the three protest parties – DB, ITN and PP. When you gather GERB and MRF, something like this happens again. This means that the decisive role will be played by the BSP. There is a huge difference whether the BSP will be second or third. If it is second, the right will most likely say what Ivan Kostov said in an interview: it goes without saying that we cannot be with the BSP mandate. But when the third term is handed over, the BSP must be called back. How will this happen? If the second is “We continue the change”, this thing is avoided. They say from the very beginning that they will offer it to everyone. However, if the first one comes true, we will find ourselves in a trap that will produce unique nonsense. A similar thing happened to Slavi The circumstances were different, but the situation is similar.
DV: Is there any clear idea of what the future of GERB will look like?
Raichev: I don’t know why anyone has the illusion that GERB is a dead dog. GERB is a serious centrist party with 600,000 votes in the bad case and 700,000 in the good case. That’s an awful lot. Imagine that the protesting parties now form a government and quarrel. Who decides then? COAT OF ARMS. Anyone who allies with GERB will gain power. But we must first see how much support they will gain in the election. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to be unavoidable, but it is close to the unavoidable.
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