If Putin loses the war in Ukraine, Russia has two options. A controlled transition after an agreement between the elites or falling into a gigantic crisis, anarchy and repression, against the background of which the saving figure of Prigozhin can emerge. This was stated in an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro by Francoise Thom, historian, specialist in Russia, author of “The countdown. Insights into Soviet and Russian history” and “Putin or the mania for power”.
Figaro: How do you imagine the end of Vladimir Putin?
Francoise Tom: History never repeats itself, but there are features in Russia’s political construction that are worth remembering. The Russian regime, perhaps even more so than the Soviet communist regime, was built around a personality, a leader, on whom the entire pyramid of power depended. This applies full force to Putin, because when he came to power, he destroyed institutions, destroyed local initiatives and erased the seeds of a state that Boris Yeltsin had set out to create.
So the day Putin is removed or killed, if that day comes, we can expect a gigantic crisis. Then we will understand that there is no Russian state! You are starting to see it in Ukraine, where the Kremlin is unable to organize the military effort. Russia’s war in Ukraine shows the beginning of the disintegration of the vertical power replacing the state, just as the Communist Party replaced the state under the USSR. At least in Soviet times there was a “politburo” which limited the power of general secretaries, even that of Stalin. With Vladimir Putin, power has become fully autocratic. There are many oligarchs around him, but politically they don’t exist.
FIGURE: So will the end of Vladimir Putin lead to chaos?
Francoise Tom: In any case, we can expect a serious crisis after the collapse of the power vertical. We can already see the first symptoms of this with the fragmentation of the armed forces into groups: Kadyrov’s, Prigozhin’s, the army’s special forces, those of the FSB and the National Guard, or even the forces of the regional governors, to which Putin gave the right to organize its own defense when it feared political unrest among the population after issuing a partial mobilization decree. When the Russians return from Ukraine, the recruits Prigozhin mobilized in prisons will be a significant source of disorder and anarchy. Like when in 1953, on Stalin’s death, Beria’s opening the doors of the Gulag was followed by a great wave of crimes.
FIGURE: What are the possible scenarios?
Francoise Tom: I see two scenarios. The first would be a controlled transition following an agreement among the elites. Prigozhin or Kadyrov are alarmists at the moment, as was the ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the days of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. Elements in favor of a semblance of liberalization are likely to emerge from the KGB. They will not be democrats, but they will try to make amends with the West by presenting themselves as pragmatic reformers. Until then, Putin was irreplaceable because the elites and part of the population believed that he had restored Russia’s power. But since he started dismantling his pillars of power, including the army, Gazprom and oil, the elites have turned away from him. Their goal will undoubtedly be to return to the Russia of the 2000s, the one that sold oil and gas to Europe. Their goal will be to lift the sanctions.
FIGURE: And the second scenario?
Francoise Tom: It is not certain that the transition will remain controlled. Perhaps the small groups that organize it will quickly be wiped out. The unanswerable question is whether we will see an uprising of regions of Russia that have been victims of Putin, bled to death and have deep grievances to voice.
Then came a period of difficulty comparable to that which followed Ivan the Terrible’s “oprichnina”, the “sovereign’s reserve”, as the part of Russia over which the tsar exercised absolute power and cruel repression was defined from 1565 to 1572. With the same excesses and anarchy that accompanied the reaction to the policy of Ivan the Terrible. In such a context, a figure like Prigogine can become an important player.
FIGURE: What would be the consequences of a Ukrainian victory for the Russian power?
Francoise Tom: Defeat in Ukraine would bring down Vladimir Putin. He has so far held his position because the elite still have hopes that he can guarantee Russia a military victory. But if Russia is forced to withdraw from all occupied lands, Putin will no longer be of any use to them and he will have to be removed. Or meekly, with guarantees of impunity, perhaps for health reasons. Or more brutally. Remember what Madame de Stael said: “Russia is a despotism tempered by murder.”
FIGURE: Do you believe in a victory for Ukraine?
Francoise Tom: Time is running out for Ukraine because it has a better trained and better equipped army and is waging intelligent warfare. Provided people can tolerate the winter, which will be very harsh. But solving the Russian problem will take time. As long as the core of Putinism, which is the plundering of Russian wealth by the ruling clan, remains intact, the problem will continue to exist. Because the leaders will be forced to resort to chauvinism and aggressive nationalism to win the obedience of the population and justify the plunder of Russia. The predatory economy is the basis of current power and it is possible that it will be reproduced by successors. As long as this predatory system exists, Westerners would do well not to rush into “business as usual” with Russia.
FIGURE: Don’t you believe in a popular uprising?
Francoise Tom: Perhaps the people will riot, but as always in Russia they will end up with a new autocracy. I can’t imagine a Democrat coming to power. Russians have been brainwashed for twenty years, people are intellectually and morally crippled. And then everything will depend on the reaction of the West. If he is far-sighted, he will attach himself more to institutions than to individuals. Will he be able to push for true decentralization in Russia? This is a key question. Will the provinces be able to keep their resources? Less dependent on Moscow? Another Russia cannot be ruled out. But if we end up with a Putin system without Vladimir Putin, the same problem will arise over time. Also, with a scarier Russia, because he will have learned his lesson from Putin’s failings and know that flies are caught with honey, not vinegar.
