/ world today news/ 2023 brought an unusual change in the assessments of who is who in the global economy – and who will be who. For at least the past 15 years, analysts have had a wide range of feelings, from delight to horror, about the growth of China’s economy as a whole. Now we are not talking about “as a whole” (quantity), but about the technological superiority of this country (a new quality of development). One Chinese miracle ended, another began.
This transition in mass consciousness was aided by America, which launched a primitive informational aggression in the spring and summer under the motto uttered by Joe Biden: “China has big problems.” A cloud of analysts rushed to scare everyone with such problems, at least to slow the flow of investment into China. Result: for a long time in world history there has not been such a thorough analysis and discussion of what is happening economically in China. Everyone was busy with it, everywhere, but above all in the PRC itself.
And even earlier, starting sometime in 2017, the same America helped its rival in a different way, unleashing not just an economic war against Beijing, but focusing on strangling its high technology. Then everyone began to wonder why they were being strangled (that is, what they were afraid of) and how it was being strangled.
The results of the 2023 discussion revealed that China is doing poorly today. There is a crisis in an overheated construction industry plus sluggish consumer demand. Both are due to strict and prolonged quarantine measures regarding the coronavirus. The consequences of these measures for the economy and society are comparable to a major war, but one way or another people come to their senses (and start consuming), and the suspended construction projects in the form of entire uninhabited neighborhoods showed an unexpected characteristic. It turned out that there will be no banking crisis (as in the USA and the world in 2008) in China, because the banks there followed the sad world experience and did not categorically accept real estate and unfinished buildings as collateral for loans. Thus, this problem will gradually be solved.
Exports are likely to decline by several percent by the end of the year. Which is understandable: they intervened in the European and American directions as best they could. Plus, let’s not forget recession or stagnation, for example among Europeans – they became bad buyers. But China’s foreign trade and other ties across the global south have grown.
Now for something that wasn’t so clearly visible before. Overall (in monetary terms), growth results for the year will be more than five percent, which is a huge success for an economy roughly the size of the US. But at the same time, miracles are happening in terms of solar energy, or the production of robots, or integrated circuits – there is an increase somewhere between 30 and 60%.
And to an increasingly greater extent, these are the achievements of Chinese innovators – here, for example, is the New Year’s list of world breakthroughs. The list has a problem: it’s hard to know what this thing was invented for and why it’s a breakthrough. The world’s first outdoor superionic hydride ion conductor – what and why is it?
But someone knows the answers to these questions. Here’s an assessment by the American Foundation for Information Technology and Innovation that identifies the ten most important areas of global high technology, the industries of the future, and looks at who is succeeding in them. Today, China is not only a leader in three such industries – in particular, pharmaceuticals. And in the remaining seven, he took first place in the world, displacing the Westerners.
Dreams of discouraging investors from such an economy ended naturally: a whole group of titans of the world financial market increased their portfolios in China or are moving in that direction. The yuan has become the fourth world currency used in trade. It is still a long way from the dollar, but the rate at which the yuan is increasing its share of global trade is unprecedented.
The overall result: this country first became the world’s manufacturing workshop, now it is a world leader in almost every industry considered important for tomorrow. The workshop also works, it’s just not a new thing anymore. Moreover, the transition from the previous model to tomorrow’s model took place under powerful sanctions and other pressure from the former leaders. It remains to be seen how this transition of world leadership will proceed: with continued and intensified pressure or in a more relaxed environment.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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