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Two days after the European Council, Angela Merkel is not giving up. The Chancellor wants to try in every way to reach an agreement with Hungary and Poland, unshakable by the veto that blocks the European multi-year budget 2021-27 and the recovery fund. The German presidency “will continue to work until the last minute of midnight on December 31”, says the minister for European affairs of the Merkel government, Michael Roth, after the videoconference with his European counterparts. “Behind the scenes, we are striving to find a solution that all 27 member states can agree on. We will leave no stone unturned ”. The threat of going ahead at 25, without Budapest and Warsaw, is losing altitude, at least for now.
In the past days, the rumor was continuous, both from the German presidency and the European Commission, both committed to telling that they were exploring the possibility of transforming the ‘Next generation Eu’ into an intergovernmental agreement, in order to ‘save’ it from Hungarian-Polish sabotage . But now that all the leaders arrive in Brussels, for a summit that promises to be very complicated on Thursday starting at lunchtime, the threat seems more tactical to try to convince Viktor Orban and Mateusz Morawiecki to back down. Failed attempt.
Today the Hungarian premier flies to Warsaw, for the third bilateral in the last two weeks. The line is still barricadera. From Budapest, his cabinet chief Gergely Gulyás reiterates that in times of pandemic “the disbursement of European funds must not be linked to any conditions and the money must reach every member state, especially those most in need”. And in addition, Orban also plays in advance with the EPP, the political family belonging to Fidesz MEPs. The premier of Budapest sends a letter to the president of the Popolari in the European Parliament, the German Manfred Weber, underlining that there are “differences of interests and communication problems” and that more ‘disconnected’ relationships should be built. It seems a first step towards farewell: the Nordic parties of the EPP have been asking for the expulsion of Fidesz for two years, so far they have managed to obtain its suspension, again for the ‘rule of law’ issue. Just today Weber threatened a “25” recovery fund solution.
The Polish premier, on the other hand, has orchestrated a communication campaign in many European newspapers, to the ground. “I fear that the question of the rule of law mechanism, behind which arbitrary political decisions are hidden, may lead to animosity between states, questioning mutual trust and disturbing relations between partners,” he says in one of the interviews released. yesterday, in this case at ‘La Stampa’. Do not miss the ‘dig’ to Holland, not exactly a fan of the recovery fund: “It is worth asking if by chance there are some countries that have no interest in the Recovery Fund really starting to work and are looking for a pretext to torpedo it. They are those who want to contribute as little as possible to the common budget, while enjoying the single market more ”.
And Morawiecki, at a press conference this morning, is considering the possibility of another European summit after that of 10 and 11 December. Words that irritate the European interlocutors. “Let’s think about the Council this week instead of starting to speculate on another summit”, comments an EU source, betraying nervousness.
After all, the way to an agreement at 25 is complicated. The budget must be approved unanimously in the Council. Even if the recovery fund were to be managed, the EU would still go into provisional operation, hanging from the old budget, European programs such as Erasmus would not be refinanced: it means that many European students would not have a scholarship to attend universities in other states of the Union. Even the ‘Eu4Health’ health program would not start. The EU could only spend one twelfth a month of the old budget. Without considering that, in the anti-crisis scheme decided for the pandemic, the new budget acts as a guarantee on the common debt that the European Commission should accumulate to put together the 750 billion euros of the recovery fund.
Yet both in Hungary and in Poland there is no lack of opposing voices. Orban is under attack from the parliamentary opposition and opposing mayors, including that of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony. Together with his colleague from Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, also anti-government, Karácsony sent a letter to the EU in which he asked to be able to override the government veto with direct access to European funds by the municipalities of the two eastern countries. In Poland, ex-premier Jerzy Buzek, of the ‘Civic Platform’ party, center-right but pro-European, same party as former European Council president Donald Tusk, spoke. Well, Buzek is convinced that the only reason behind the government’s veto is the desire to “take Poland out of the EU. But where are we going this way? – he asks himself – Nowhere “.
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