Analyzing Ukraine’s Objectives and Challenges in the Russian Counterattack

After several months of delay, pictures of the Ukrainian successes began to be followed by the soldiers participating in the operations, as they did in several villages raising the yellow and blue Ukrainian flags in front of the buildings whose walls were mutilated by bullets.

But all this is only a sideshow compared to the larger objective of the operations.

The arena that acquires the greatest strategic importance is the southern front, located between Zaporizhia, towards the Sea of ​​Azov in the south, and it is the area that serves as a corridor linking the Russian lands and the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed from one side, in 2014, and it is the area that has not been It has undergone many changes since the Russian forces seized it with the start of the attack about a year and a half ago.

And in the event that the Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate into this region and cut it so as to cut off the supply route, then it can be said that the Russian attack will achieve a valuable success, because that means besieging the Russian forces in the west and cutting off their supply line in the Crimea.

This may not directly mean the end of the war, which is expected to last for several years, but such a stance would mean giving the Ukrainians the dominant hand on the battlefield.

But the Russians had already looked at the maps earlier, and reached the same conclusions, so they took advantage of the time when the Ukrainians sent their officers to the West to receive training at the hands of NATO forces, in preparation for the attack, and began to fortify their lines to the point that they considered that the area had become “The most fortified in the entire world ever.”

For this, Russia has turned the region into successive fields of mines, up to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, concrete barriers to repel tanks, known as the “Dragon’s Tooth”, fortified firing positions, and trenches deep enough to stop German-made Leopard tanks and American Abrams that entered the battle.

In the end, Russia placed artillery batteries in fortified centers that can rain down the battlefields with explosive dana, and turn Ukrainian armored vehicles and tanks into a moving hell before they reach their targets.

Thus, the initial indications appear to be on the side of the Russians, and suggest that they will be able to maintain their positions.

So far, Ukraine has not sent the majority of its forces to the battlefields, and therefore the forces are still in the reconnaissance phase and exploring the locations of the Russian artillery batteries and their weaknesses.

As for the Ukrainian forces, they are fighting with high morale, with the aim of liberating their lands from occupation, while the Russian forces do not enjoy these things, and in many cases their training is weak and their equipment is dilapidated compared to the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian leadership hopes that if it can achieve a military achievement, this may lead to a rapid collapse of the Russian forces, on various fronts, due to low morale.

Also on the Ukrainian side is the modern military equipment provided by NATO countries, in contrast to the equipment used by Russian forces from the era of the former Soviet Union, and the armored vehicles and tanks owned by the Ukrainian forces can achieve multiple advantages over their Russian counterparts on the battlefield.

But is all this enough to confront the power of Russian artillery and march attacks?

Because of its vast area, Russia enjoys strategic advantages that outweigh Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who started this war, knows that fact very well, and knows that he can extend the battles to the next year, at which point the United States and its allies may back down from supporting the Ukrainians, and perhaps putting pressure on them to reach a solution. Middle with a diplomatic formula.

In the end, the air cover remains. Attacking a well-fortified enemy without adequate air cover is a great risk, and the Ukrainians know this very well, especially after they have run out of patience, and they are asking the West to supply them with F-16 fighters, and despite that, the United States, which manufactures them, did not give its approval. , only recently, after the end of the counterattack preparations.

The F-16s may have arrived too late for the Ukrainians to play a major role in the first phase of the counterattack.

And once again, the Ukrainians demonstrate the extent of their need to quickly respond to their requests, and supply them with weapons and ammunition. Months ago, they were able to push the Russian forces to retreat from the Kherson region using the method of striking the rear lines and cutting supply lines, so that they could no longer keep their soldiers in the city.

And the Ukrainian forces will try to use long-range missiles, such as the British Storm Shadow, to activate the same plan again, but in light of the propaganda campaigns and counter-propaganda, it may take several weeks, and perhaps several months, until we can get clear indications about what is happening. already on the ground.