He S&P 500, an index that includes the 500 largest listed companies on the New York Stock Exchange, surprised in the first half of the year with a cumulative rise of 15.9% to reach 4,450 points. Giants like Apple o Microsoftconverted into authentic engines of the New York parquet, and with the hopes also placed on the Fed ending the tightening of monetary policy.
Given this scenario, is there room for further increases? analysts Jorge Pradilla and Carlos Pellicer, from BankinterThey have their doubts. “We wait a more erratic second semester on the stock market”, they point out in a report. “He The most delicate moment could take place between July and August, when the regional American banks will publish the figures for the second quarter of 2023”.
Further support seems to be provided by the statistical data of the story. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 It has risen between 12% and 17% in the first half of the year (as in 2023), it is normal for it to have risen again in the second half of the year. According to data from Carson Investment Research, released by @Ryandetrick, the rise has been an average of 10.9%.
However, there is a point to take into account and that is that there are times when increases of more than 15% in the first semester have also brought “pain” in the following months. Thus, for example, the second half of 1987 is remembered by investors for being one of the “blackest” in history, falling by 18.7%.
Going back to Pradilla and Pellicer, in their opinion the second half of the year “will be the time to Position yourself for a 2024 that offers attractive stock market appreciation potential”. Bankinter experts expect that the S&P 500 reaches a 5,035 point price target in December 2024 (compared to 4,285 previously), which implies an upside potential of 15% in the next year and a half.
“The second half of this year will be erratic after the good performance in the first semester, but it will offer opportunities to position itself for an optimal 2024,” they point out in their report. Experts expect corporate profits to bottom out between the second and third quarters of this year, to gain momentum until reaching annual growth figures of +10% in 2024 and 2025.
Secondly, they estimate that the Fed will reach the maximum or terminal rate level this year at 5.25%/5.50% (+25 basis points in one of the next two meetings in July or September). However, “the recent hardening of his speech suggests that rates will remain at high levels for longer than previously forecast and we do not expect the first decreases until the end of 2024/beginning of 2025”, Bankinter analysts point out. “This makes us be cautious in our valuations, opting to take the maximum that we estimate the T-Note will reach between this year and next (3.90%).”
These valuations include a moderate risk scenario in the US. The campaign for the presidential elections of November 2024 has already begun and it is still pending to know if Trump will be able to definitively present himself as a candidate.
2023-07-11 09:04:31
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