Analysis: Who can Bayern Munich face in the knockout stages of the Champions League?

It’s that time of year again, when we see who Bayern Munich could face in the knockout stages of the Champions League. Writing this after a disappointing draw against Union Berlin, it would be easy to get bogged down in negativity and talk about how potential draws are dire and why they will destroy Bayern at the first chance they get.

So that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Put on your belt.

Option # 1: Lazio

League position: Eighth
Goals Scored: 17
Objectives granted: 19

First up is a newcomer to UCL knockouts, SS Lazio. Led by Simone Inzaghi, the inhabitants of the Italian capital have become a force to be reckoned with in recent years, mounting a title challenge against Juventus in the 2019-20 season (before the lockdown killed their momentum ). Star forward Ciro Immobile was in top form last season and remains their top scorer.

Inconsistency is this Lazio team’s nightmare as they lack the effective depth or quality to mount a sustained momentum for trophies. They already have 4 losses in the league this season and were unable to top their group despite winning and drawing against Borussia Dortmund in two games. In a knockout tournament, however, they can be effective. Lazio can occasionally hit above their weight, as shown in their draws against BVB and Juve this season. This would not be a tie that Bayern could sleepwalking through, but those kinds of ties no longer exist. The UCL is packed with quality teams these days, and Lazio is no exception.

Option # 2: Porto

League position: Third
Goals Scored: 23
Objectives granted: 13

As the only team on this list to come from a league that is not in the top 4, FC Porto is a difficult opponent to define. They were second in a group with Manchester City, managing to tie Pep Gudiola’s Blues at home (against a heavily rotated team, to be fair). A healthy Bayern should be able to do quick work for them at the Allianz Arena. The second leg in Portugal could end in a draw or a loss, but Hansi Flick and his men should hope to get through it outside of exceptional circumstances. Of course, since the team can’t even beat Union Berlin right now …

More heroic Javi entrees? Photo by Mateo Villalba / Quality Sport Images / Getty Images

Option # 3: Seville

League position: Fifth
Goals Scored: 13
Objectives granted: 9

Fifth in La Liga with one game less (could finish the day in fourth place), Sevilla are trying their luck in the Champions League this season, after crushing the Europa League for so many years. Bayern already faced them in the UEFA Super Cup earlier in the season, where the Spanish made life hell for Hansi Flick and his men.

Sevilla know how to play against Bayern. He has a solid defense and the technical ability to get through the press and hit Bayern on the counter. In September, they led a healthy Bayern to a draw for 90 minutes of football, only failing in extra time. They have an average record against the best teams this season, losing poorly to Chelsea and failing to beat the weakened Real Madrid and Barcelona. However, their style of play makes them a difficult opponent, even when they don’t win.

Sevilla manager Julen Lopetegui will undoubtedly have a renewed plan if he gets a second chance against the Bavarians, so this is a draw Hansi Flick will try to avoid.

Anyone but Seville, please.

Option # 4: Atalanta

League position: Nineth
Goals Scored: 18
Objectives granted: sixteen

Atalanta were the hipsters’ favorite team last season, playing an attractive brand of fast-paced, free football with coach Gian Piero Gasperini. However, the team’s humble origins put them at a clear disadvantage in the knockout stages of the Champions League as they barely have the depth of squad to compete in more than one competition at a time. As in Lazio, match congestion has created a gap of inconsistency in a finely tuned Italian machine, which can be a death sentence in the Champions League.

However, Atalanta are formidable rivals in their day. They beat Ajax to get to this year’s knockouts and crushed Liverpool in a game Jurgen Klopp probably didn’t see coming. There are rumors of tensions between coach Gasperini and his players, which could become a bigger problem in the coming months. But he is a formidable opponent and should not be taken lightly, especially given Bayern’s defensive woes this season. It only takes one goal to turn a draw around, and Bayern are prone to conceding first lately.

Option # 5: Barcelona

League position: Nineth
Goals Scored: 20
Objectives granted: 11

Barca fans will probably hear this 8-2, but they are one of the weakest teams left in the Champions League right now. The Catalans are a disaster from top to bottom: their finances are a sham, the club president resigned after a vote of no confidence and the star man Leo Messi wants to leave the team.

Speaking of Messi, his production has dropped significantly compared to previous years. The little wizard from Argentina is no longer capable of pulling Barca through a jam on his own, which is what led to his sorry state on the pitch. Nobody knows why this happens. Some will say that it is because he did not replace Luis Suárez, who was sold in the summer. Others say that Ronald Koeman’s tactics do not fit Messi’s style of play, or that age is catching up. Maybe it’s a bit of everything.

Regardless, Barça at the moment are in an even worse position than when Bayern beat them 8-2. Given that fans are likely still banned from stadiums in February 2021 (the time of the first leg), Barca can’t even take advantage of their stellar record at home at UCL to save them. While it may not be a piece of cake, especially if Messi has one of those days, Hansi’s Bayern should think about their chances against Barça two games away.

The UCL draw will take place on Monday, December 14 at 12 noon CET. Stay tuned to Bavarian Football Works for a live draw thread, plus instant news and reactions.

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