WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. national debt will rise under the economic proposals of both Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump, but even more so under Trump’s, an analysis released Monday suggests.
Under Harris’ proposals, the debt over 10 years will increase by $3.5 trillion, according to analysis by the nonpartisan group Commission for a Responsible Federal Budget. This is despite Harris’ campaign promise that the Democratic candidate “is committed to fiscal responsibility: investments that will stimulate our economy, paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time.”
The same analysis says that under former President Trump’s proposals, the debt will increase by $7.5 trillion and possibly even up to $15.2 trillion. This despite Trump’s insistence that under his presidency economic growth will be so great that no one will have to worry about deficits.
The 34-page report focuses attention on the issue of government borrowing, which the winner of the November election will have to confront. The total federal debt currently stands at $28 trillion and could rise as revenues cannot match expenditures from public programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The analysis notes that the cost of debt service “has exceeded the cost of defending the nation or providing medical care to elderly citizens.”
Based on the candidates’ speeches, their campaign documents and their social media posts, the analysis warns that “debt will continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidate’s proposals and in most cases.” scenarios will increase more and faster than under current law.”
In their speeches to voters, neither candidate has placed much emphasis on the need to reduce deficits, but multiple analyzes clearly show that Harris is more fiscally responsible than Trump.
Jason Furman, a professor at Harvard University who was the top economist in the White House during Barack Obama’s administration, estimated in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal that Harris’ plans could reduce deficits by 1.5 trillion dollars or they could increase them by 1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, their estimates show that Trump’s plans would increase deficits by $5 trillion, although that figure does not include his plans to waive taxes on overtime pay and eliminate the cap on deductions for state and local taxes.
There are other analyses, such as those from The Budget Lab at Yale and the Penn Wharton Budget Model, that also show that Harris would be better at controlling the deficit.
Analysis by the Commission for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Harris’ plans will add $3.5 trillion to the national debt between now and the end of 2035. That estimate depends on how much the various government programs would cost.
He predicts that Harris will implement $4.6 trillion in tax cuts, including extensions of some reductions applied in 2017 by Trump and exemptions for parents and the elimination of tip taxes for hospitality workers. The $4 trillion in tax increases on corporations and the wealthy will not be enough to offset the cost of their plans and the additional interest on the debt they would generate.
