Analysis: The risk of ant’s valuation downgrade is high. Alibaba’s stock price may fall below 200 yuan. It is not suitable to make a bottom at this stage. | Apple Daily

The Ant Group, a subsidiary of Alibaba (9988), was interviewed by the regulator again and put forward rectification requirements for five key business areas. Some analysts believe that the relevant rectification will completely change the business model of Ant’s micro-loan business, and the future profit contribution will be greatly reduced, and the risk of valuation downward adjustment is high. Uncertain factors in analysis and expectations have not been fully reflected. There is a great chance that Alibaba’s stock price will fall below 200 yuan. It is not suitable to make a bottom at this stage.

Guo Jiayao, vice president of Zhengrong’s financial business department, said that Ant’s micro-loan business had strong profitability in the past, mainly due to its role as a pure intermediary, using the capital of other financial institutions to extract service fees from it, with low business costs and risks. However, after the relevant rectifications are implemented, Ants will need to comply with the reserve requirement and reduce their lending capacity in disguise. “Can the micro-lending business contribute huge profits?” As the ant’s business model withdrew and changed after the rectification, the risk of its downward valuation is quite high.

In addition, Guo Jiayao believes that Alibaba relied on Ant’s profit contribution in the past, and then invested funds to develop new businesses and technologies. If Ant’s profit contribution decreases in the future, the entire group’s attitude towards new business development will become conservative. However, Guo believes that in the long run, Ant’s customer acquisition cost is still lower than traditional banks, and there are still advantages in operation, but it can no longer easily earn “easy money.”

The central government has repeatedly cracked down on Ali, and Ant’s most profitable micro-lending businesses, “Huabei” and “Baibai”, are in the limelight. “Huabei” is a digital unsecured revolving consumer credit product of Ant, while “Baibei” is a digital unsecured short-term consumer credit product. The microfinance business represented by the two has become Ant’s largest source of income and profit engine. In the first half of the year, it contributed 40% of revenue, surpassing 36% of the payment business’s revenue, and recorded approximately 28.6 billion yuan.

As of the end of June, the consumer credit balance facilitated by Ant was 1.7 trillion yuan, and the credit balance for small and micro operators was 0.4 trillion yuan. However, unlike banks, Ant does not use its balance sheet to carry out credit business. Earlier, the People’s Bank of China issued new regulations that the capital contribution ratio of microfinance companies operating online microfinance business should not be less than 30%, which means that ants need to increase capital for their microfinance business and need to reapply for a license.

Everbright Sun Hung Kai Wealth Management Strategist Wen Jie said bluntly that the five major rectification requirements and the earlier new regulations all point to Ant’s future micro-lending business will be tied up. If you want to borrow 1 trillion yuan, Ali has to invest 300 billion yuan, which is not a matter of its own. It seems that Zhongdian should be more flexible and profitable? Well, I am the same as buying HSBC, not worth 40 times higher Valuation.”

Ali’s share price may fall below 200 yuan

Ali plunged nearly 10% last Thursday to close at 228.2 yuan; then the US stocks relay fell, closing 13.3% to 222 US dollars, the biggest single-day drop, and 5.7% lower than the Hong Kong stock market. Wen Jie pointed out that the lowest ADR had reached 215 yuan, and he believed that Ali’s stock price would try to be low again tomorrow.

Kwok Ka-yao said that investors who do not have stocks should not rush into the market, because the rectification will affect the entire business, the chance of “wearing 200” is quite high; if the holders “don’t wait for money, they will win in the long run.” , But referring to the past experience of Tencent (700), the “delivery period” should be at least one year or more, and we must also consider whether it can withstand the suffering during the period. Investors who intend to “sell goods” or enter the market should wait until all regulatory details have been implemented and the stock price has first become clear before considering entering the market.

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