APOUkrainian soldiers at the front last week
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 06:43
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Paulus Houthuijs
editor Online
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Paulus Houthuijs
editor Online
As the Ukrainian army struggles with ammunition and manpower shortages, Russia continues to attack. Analysts expect the Russian army to continue to slowly advance the front line in the coming months. It has the resources and military personnel to maintain this pressure for the time being, albeit at a high price.
Russian President Putin boasted in his annual speech in parliament this week that his country is stronger than ever, both economically and militarily. “It’s not the polished army he thought he would have for the 2022 invasion,” says Russia expert Mark Galeotti. “But we have to recognize that Russia probably has an advantage in Ukraine this year.”
‘Putin’s chance’
Despite heavy sanctions, production of rockets and artillery ammunition in Russia has been significantly increased, writes the British think tank RUSI, to which Galeotti is affiliated. The recruitment of new soldiers allows the invasion force to continue attacking in small groups.
“This year is Putin’s chance,” says Galeotti, “before the West can get its ammunition production in order by 2025. However, I don’t think anyone has the capacity for a major offensive for the time being.”
Ukraine’s main objectives for the time being are to strengthen, inflict losses on Russian troops and hold out until more equipment and ammunition arrives from the West. The country likes to point out the successes achieved in the Black Sea. A new opportunity for a counterattack is awaited. This time with F-16s from European countries such as the Netherlands.
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But it will be a big challenge from a Ukrainian perspective, says analyst Riley Bailey. He contributes to the daily update of developments at the front for the American think tank Institute for the Study of War.
“Ukraine will have to make very difficult decisions in the coming months, including how many people and weapons it will deploy to frustrate the Russian advance, which is crucial.” Constant defending takes a lot of effort and is also at the expense of future attacking power, Bailey explains.
In Ukraine there is also the mobilization issue. The government is applying more coercion to deal with the urgent shortage of soldiers.
Nieuwsuur recently made this report about the dire shortage of Ukrainian troops:
Disastrous shortage of troops in Ukraine
Russia currently reportedly has around 470,000 troops in occupied Ukrainian territory. That is more than 100,000 more than a year ago, according to think tank RUSI.
The Russian military leadership has learned from the many mistakes in the first phase of the war. To limit losses, the attack groups are now much smaller and tanks are often kept at hand. Exhausted units are relieved more quickly, experts explain. This way the Russian army can continue to press at the front.
On the other hand, there is skepticism, because can Russia maintain the current pace in the long term? There are also indications that it is difficult for the war industry to scale up further, for example due to a shortage of workers. In any case, the course of a war is difficult to predict because there are so many variables.
Russian initiative
“Currently we see the Russians gradually gaining ground,” says analyst Bailey. “These are not major breakthroughs, but they do have the initiative. The Russian army determines where the fighting takes place and the pace.”
According to him and other analysts, Russia is still losing relatively many soldiers in these attacks, but there are no hard figures. It is estimated that for every Ukrainian soldier killed, two to three Russians were killed, Galeotti said. But Russia’s population is more than three times that of Ukraine, he adds.
Putin said “the consequences will be tragic” if NATO sends ground troops to Ukraine:
Putin gives annual speech: ‘We also have weapons’
Galeotti sees Macron’s statements as a lightning rod. “France’s aid to Ukraine totals 0.07 percent of gross national product, one of the lowest in Europe.” He sees more European leaders “using rhetoric to hide these kinds of things.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian cities continue to be bombed by Russia with drones and missiles. Last Thursday alone, at least eight civilians were killed, according to Ukraine.
Bailey and Galeotti agree that the battle is likely to last a long time. For Ukraine, everything depends on Western allies: without their support, winning is seen as impossible. “Even if the equipment comes in, a counterattack is not automatically possible,” says Bailey. “And no counteroffensive is likely to completely end the Russian campaign.”
2024-03-02 05:43:00
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