Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited Stated in the analysis dated (26 Dec. 2023) it is expected that the profit margin of the Thai livestock business is likely to increase in 2024, supported by the price of Thai livestock that is likely to increase. It is estimated that the price of Thai live pigs has increased 16% from the lowest point of 2023 at 57 baht/kg. (16-23 Oct. 2023) up to 66 baht/kg. (6-8 Dec. 2023), while the price of Thai live chicken also increased by 8% from 37.25 baht/kg. (4-29 Oct. 2023) to 40.25 baht/kg. (7-8 Dec. 66)
It is expected that Thai live pork prices will likely recover back to 75-80 baht/kg and Thai live chicken prices will return to 40-44 baht/kg in the first half of 2024.
There is a supporting factor from the upcoming festive season. The effects of the severe El Niño phenomenon, which will result in hotter than normal weather conditions. (affecting the supply of meat to decrease) and illegal pork smuggling are expected to decrease significantly next year. In addition, the average Thai live pig price for 2024 is estimated at 80 baht/kg, an increase of 7% from the same period last year. And the average Thai live chicken price in 2024 is 42.5 baht/kg, an increase of 4% from the same period last year. It also estimates that overall raw material costs are likely to drop by about 10% next year.
forEl Niño phenomenon Analysts estimate it at It is “moderately strong” and will result in hotter-than-usual summer weather in Thailand in the first half of 2024. It is expected that warmer-than-usual weather will further damage the meat supply. even more This will be a factor in putting pressure on the supply of land meat during April-May. To be even more tight than during normal conditions. and resulted in the price of Thai livestock increasing.
In addition, it is expected that the domestic corn price for 2024 will average 10 baht / kg, down 17% from the same period last year. and estimated the average domestic soybean meal price for 2024 at 20 baht/kg, down 11% from the same period last year from the average price of 22.40 baht/kg in 2023.
From the above issues, the analyst department chose Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited or CPF It is the first choice for investment in the agriculture and food sector. This is due to the expectation that operating results will revert to net profit in 2024, supported by the price of land meat that is expected to increase in both Thailand, China and Vietnam, plus animal feed costs that will increase. It is expected that it will decrease. and profit-sharing flipping from associates (from HyLife, a Canadian profit-sharing joint venture Share of loss from CTI, a subsidiary in China, is expected to decrease. and share of profits from CP All Public Company Limited or CPALL which is expected to continue to grow strongly)
There are also secondary investment options in the agriculture and food sector, such as Betagro Public Company Limited or BTG, Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited or TFG and GFPT Public Company Limited or GFPT
However, the outlook for the recovery of core operating results in 2024 is expected to show that CPF will recover the most from a reversal to its profit estimate of 2 billion baht in 2024, followed by BTG from a reversal to its profit estimate. 1.96 billion baht in 2024 and TFG forecasts 2024 profits at 1.85 billion baht, an increase of 656% from the same period last year, while GFPT forecasts core profits in 2024 at 1.5 billion baht, an increase of 19% from the same period last year. of the previous year
2023-12-29 04:00:59
#Selected #agricultural #stocks #receive #porkchicken #prices #recovering #highlighting #CPF #top #pick
