Stock dimension – The price of crude oil last week rose about 8% from the previous week because on April 3, 2023, eight OPEC+ members cut production by 1.16 million barrels per day since May. .-Dec. ’23, including Russia, which has extended the production cut of 500,000 barrels per day from March ’23 until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco announced a term increase in crude oil prices. for customers in Asia For the third straight month, it has shown confidence in Asian oil demand. Fitch Ratings has also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating from A to A+, in line with its stronger fiscal position.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the banking crisis that plagued markets around the world last month was “extremely difficult”. tends to end The small banks, if there is a problem, will be helped to get through the crisis. The big banks remain strong enough.
The price of ICE Brent is expected to move in the range of 84-89 US dollars per barrel from OPEC+ production cuts that will affect supply in the world market to be more tight. pushing oil prices up to $90-100 per barrel by the end of 2023
Technically, this week, ICE Brent crude oil prices are expected to move between $84-89 per barrel.
Factors that positively affect crude oil prices
- At the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on April 3, 2023, OPEC+ maintained its policy to reduce crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Gabon have volunteered additional voluntary production cuts totaling 16 million bpd since May. -Dec. ’23 and Russia extends the production reduction plan by 500,000 barrels per day in March-June until Dec. ’23, causing the total production reduction volume in May-Dec. 2023 at 3.66 million barrels per day
- US EIA reports oil demand for March 2023 at 54 million barrels per day. The highest since November 2022, while US crude oil production in January 2023 from the previous month increased by 36,000 barrels per day to 12.46 million barrels per day. Highest since Mar. ’20
- Reuters reports Asia crude imports in 1Q23 rose 3% QoQ to 28.67 million bpd. from Chinese demand recovering after opening the country China imported crude oil in March 2023, increasing by 1 million barrels per day from the previous month, amounting to 11.65 million barrels per day.
Factors Affecting Crude Oil Prices Negatively
- Chairman of the Board of the International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva expects global GDP growth in 2023 to grow below +3% from the previous year (down from +3.4% in 2022). ) from the banking crisis inflation and geopolitical problems
- On May 2-3, 2023, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may increase the policy rate by 0.25% from the current range of 4.75 – 5.0% from the US economic signal. There is a better direction, for example, the number of non-farm payrolls in March 2023 increased from the previous month to 236,000, while the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) from the previous month fell 0.1% to 3.5%.
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