Jeb Bush was not known more for his charisma than for his sense of humor. However, in February 2016, during an almost pathetic campaign to obtain the Republican nomination, he had a witticism. The nominee, he said, must be willing to “lose the primary to win the general election”. Representative of the Republican establishment, then left behind in the polls by an emerging Trump, he thus wanted to underline this paradox: winning a Republican primary which is played very right jeopardizes the chances of the candidate when it comes to soliciting the all the votes of Americans.
He had clearly not been right about this electoral season since the most right-wing candidate in the Republican field won the GOP (Grand Old Party) nomination and beat the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, certainly thanks to the electoral college system: 3 million votes behind but 77,000 ahead in three “key states” (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) which opened the doors to the White House.
The joke returned to the minds of some observers as the Republican primary began on January 15: what if it turned out to be relevant in 2024? While Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party has never seemed so total, the growing isolation from the rest of society of a Maga base (Make America Great Again, “make America great again”, Donald Trump’s campaign slogan in 2016) worries some strategists.
Towards a third investiture in a row
The first two votes confirmed what the polls indicated: Donald Trump’s position in this Republican primary is powerful if not unassailable. In Iowa, a small rural white state in the Midwest with a high proportion of evangelical Christians, the former president received 51% ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21%), who would drop out the day after the vote, and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley (19%). In New Hampshire, another small white state, but with a libertarian/libertarian political character, Trump again won a majority of the votes (54%), compared to 43% for Nikki Haley. Polls give him a lead of several dozen points in the upcoming votes: Nevada (February 8) and South Carolina (February 24). Nothing seems to be able to prevent him from winning a third nomination in a row.
The success in New Hampshire, however, reveals flaws in view of the November 5 vote. If Trump comes well ahead among Republicans, he is ahead of Nikki Haley (58% against 39%) among independents, an essential “segment” in this state which is still considered “key” (swing state). Among voters who consider themselves moderates, the setback is even more pronounced: 72% to 25%. Among the most educated (half of the voters), he is also ahead: 56% against 42%.
These few data confirm the central contradiction of Donald Trump: his base, made up of very right-wing voters, rather poorly educated (but with higher average incomes) and unwavering, makes his victory in the primaries almost certain, but weakens his quest for a second term in a new duel with Joe Biden. Nikki Haley is also trying to make it a campaign argument: “Don’t you want someone who can win?” »
An anti-Biden referendum?
“Even though Mr. Trump inspired extraordinary loyalty among the Republican base, the party lost the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House during his term”remember Le New York Times. Jamelle Bouie, one of its columnists, goes even further: “Mr Trump is essentially presenting himself as an outgoing president. And the results in New Hampshire prove that, compared to a typical incumbent president running for office, he is weak. »
This is also the problem of the Republican Party as much as of Donald Trump: since the end of the Cold War, if the GOP has occupied the White House for three terms (compared to five for the Democrats), its candidate has not been in the majority of votes only once (W. Bush in 2004). To this general equation for the American right, we must therefore add the “Trump factor”: his candidacy ensures, in the same movement, to replenish the conservative base and to over-mobilize “opposition” voters.
This is the whole bet of Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020: to transform the election into an “anti-Trump referendum”. A winning strategy since the Democrat garnered 81 million votes, compared to 74 for the Republican. The outgoing president will undoubtedly play on the same vein even if this time he will also have to defend his record, and in particular his unconditional support for the war in Gaza, which infuriates the youngest segment of his electorate. In an ultrapolarized country, the main key lies in mobilizing its “natural” voters.
Despite the Trump steamroller in the Republican primary, can the 2020 “revenge” take place? This is where justice comes in, with not only the four trials facing the billionaire, but also the burning question of his eligibility. This Thursday, February 8, the Supreme Court will hold a hearing to hear the arguments of the parties concerned and is expected to rule quickly.
According to a ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, the former president’s name cannot appear on the primary ballot because of his role in the insurrection against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, which prohibits him from ‘after the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, to run for elected office. Never in history has a presidential candidate been excluded from a ballot under this constitutional argument. The composition of the highest judicial body in the country (six conservative judges, including three appointed by Donald Trump himself, out of nine) however makes a favorable decision in Colorado unlikely.
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2024-02-08 16:44:45
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