By Agriculture. 28/06/2023 | 08:06
Until April 2023, the slaughter numbers continue to be high, and the percentage of female fendas that reached 50.2% is worrying. Beyond the seasonality that April can show in this matter, it should be noted that it was the second time in the last thirty-four years that the indicator was above 50%. It is still early to determine if the value chain is entering a new phase of liquidation, but it can be affirmed that the figure was well above the upper limit of the range consistent with the sustainability of the cattle herd. No doubt the drought is forcing breeders to remove from the field the cows that came out empty by touch.
The production of beef remains firm, accompanying the slaughter, since in April 2023 it totaled 263 thousand tons of bone-in beef (ton r/c/h). In relation to March, there was a 4.7% higher volume when correcting for the number of working days and compared to April of last year, the production was 13.4% higher. Considering the first four months of 2023, production was 9.7% higher than that registered in January-April 2022, with 105.2 million more having been produced.
With an estimate of beef exports equivalent to 294.9 thousand tons r/c/h in the first four months of the year (+12.3%; +32.4 thousand tons r/c/h), the domestic market Argentine would have received a volume equivalent to 773.3 thousand tons r/c/h. This implies that domestic consumption would have absorbed a 10.4% higher volume compared to the first four months of 2022.
With these numbers, and taking into account the evolution of the total population of the country, the moving average of the last twelve months of per capita consumption of beef would have been 49.9 kg/year in April 2023. That is, 4.8% above the record for April 2022 (+2.3 kg/inhab/year), but 8.2% below the record for April 2019 (-4.4 kg/inhab/year).
In the interannual comparison, the prices of the main beef cuts increased from 82.0% to 74.0%. In the upper end was the rump, followed by the shoulder (+81.1%), the rump (+78.6%) and the common minced meat (+78.5%), and in the lower end was roast (+74.0%). However, in the case of the box of frozen hamburgers, its price increased 140.6% per year, while the price of the whole chicken rose 149.8% in the last year. The average increase in the prices of the main beef cuts was in the order of 2.5% monthly and 79% end to end from April 2022 to April 2023. Thus, between April 2022 and April 2023, as well as the price The average of the main cuts of beef widened its fall to 14.8% in relation to the general level of the CPI, in relation to the value of the whole chicken it widened it to 28.4%.
Regarding the prospects, the producers are already working for 2024, because the entire farm and all the bellies, which are the ones that are furthest behind, will be more valued. All resources, financial, food, are being planned to arrive as well armed as possible by January 2024. Today the scarcest resource is food due to the drought. Just as it happened in 2008 and 2009 that after a severe drought witnessed a strong interventionism in the sector, they gave rise to a 2010 with very strong values and price increases; it is very likely that it will happen again in 2024.
The drop in production, the increase in domestic prices and the bad relationship between businessmen and the government after the export restriction measures do not lead to a good outcome.
The formation of internal prices does not have to be subject to export, they are different chains. If the Government’s objective is to reduce the increase in the price of meat, it must regulate the chain of formation of the internal price, which involves the price of grains, labor and the cost of transportation, among others.
It is important for a better perspective the reduction of uncertainty, for which the decrees of changes in the export rules do not help.
With respect to prices, it does not seem very likely that there will be a significant change in the price of standing farms during the first half of 2023. Only after the normalization of the rainfall regime will prices begin to correct, very gently at first and accelerating towards the end of the year, at which time the price of meat will reach high percentages, which could be around between 70% and 100% above the low values reached at the end of 2022.
The price of the steer rose 55%, well below the general price level that climbed 95%, going from $177 kg live in 2021 to $274 kg live in 2022. In the same sense, the internal price of meat, although grew somewhat more (+58%) was also far from compensating for inflation. For their part, export prices registered a rise of 10%, quite encouraging data, and which marks an upward trend in 2020.
And speaking of the population’s consumption of beef, in recent years it has been reduced, but other types of meat have begun to be consumed with greater intensity, mainly poultry and pork. The consumption of meat shows a clear downward trend until 2021 (in 2017 it was 57.3 kg/inhab/year and in 2021 47.7), stopping this fall in 2022 (48.4 kg/inhab/year) with a tendency to continue rising in 2023, mainly due to the low relative price due to over-slaughtering as a result of the drought.
2023-06-28 11:06:00
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