Analysis of 2024 Economic Outlook: Impact on Nickel Prices and Global Mining Industry

Economic Outlook 2024

Verda Nano Setiawan, CNBC Indonesia

Friday, 01/03/2024 19:20 IWST

Photo: REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment (Kemenko Marves) denies that world nickel prices have fallen due to excess supply from Indonesia. This follows complaints from Australian nickel companies regarding the current drop in world nickel prices.

Deputy for Investment and Mining Coordination at the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Septian Hario Seto, explained that if you look at the last 10 years, the current nickel price is actually still higher.

According to him, the average nickel price in the last 10 years has only been around US$ 15,000 per ton, lower than the current price of around US$ 17,000 per ton.

“In the last 10 years, nickel levels have averaged around US$ 15,000 per ton, still lower than the current US$ 17,000 per ton. I think I’m frankly confused, Australia, Caledonia and France are protesting nickel prices,” he said at an Economic event. Outlook 2024 CNBC Indonesia in Jakarta, quoted Friday (1/3/2024).

He believes that the complaints of Australian and New Caledonian miners due to the current downward trend in nickel prices cannot be separated from two main factors within their own country.

In Australia, for example, he continued, the closure of several nickel mines was more because they started nickel projects at a time when world nickel prices were high above US$ 20,000 per ton.

“So I think there are two factors influencing the many Australian nickel projects that recently started when the nickel price was above US$ 20,000 and the hope is that for these projects the nickel price will continue to be high,” he said.

Meanwhile in New Caledonia, many nickel mines closed due to inefficiency.

“Secondly, efficiency, so New Caledonia has many smelter investments that are inefficient, so it will be difficult to compete in the future,” he added.

Based on Trading Economics data, the nickel price on February 29 2024 was at US$ 17,670 per ton, up 2.93% compared to last week and up 8.75% on a monthly basis.

However, when compared to the same period last year, nickel prices still fell 28.39%. In fact, in early 2024 the world nickel price fell to its lowest position in the last three years.

Referring to CNBC Indonesia Research records, on Monday (22/1/2024) the world nickel price for a three-month contract was recorded at US$ 16,036 per ton. This position is the lowest since April 2021.

Quoting ABC, it is known that more than 250 jobs will be affected by the closure of operations at the Australian nickel mine owned by Wyloo Metals.

The company owned by billionaire Andrew Forrest has confirmed that its Kambalda nickel mine will temporarily suspend operations on May 31. This is in line with the price of stainless steel and batteries falling 45% in the last 12 months.

This comes nearly six months after Forrest’s private company paid AU$760 million to acquire the Cassini, Long and Durkin mine site in Kambalda, which employs 44 Wyloo workers and 220 contractors.

The closures follow the shutdown of the Savannah nickel mine in the Kimberley, this month, and First Quantum Minerals’ decision to cease mining at its Ravensthorpe nickel mine on WA’s south coast and cut 30% of its workforce.

In a statement, Wyloo CEO Luca Giacovazzi described the decision to halt the Kambalda mine as only temporary.

“We are exploring a number of options for the long-term future of our business, including developing our own concentrator in the Kambalda area,” he said.

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