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Analysis: Hamas’ success and Israeli failures – Why did it happen and what are the implications?

According to the latest information, over 800 people have died since the first attacks. More than a hundred others were taken hostage by the terrorists. The number of wounded exceeded 2300. How do you explain that the Hamas movement succeeded? What and who all failed on the Israeli side?

First of all, I will not forgive myself for one remark: let’s call Hamas a terrorist organization, as we as the Czech Republic and the European Union recognize it. All those who doubted it now clearly see that it is a terrorist organization that uses the same methods as the Islamic State and others.

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The Israelis vastly underestimated the situation. They thought that there would be a massive rocket fire with casualties once in a while with Hamas, but that they would not engage in a significant confrontation.

It was on the holidays, on the night from Friday to Saturday. The Israeli side focused on the unrest in the West Bank, Iran and the northern border. Although Iran has connections with Hamas, the attention from the Israeli security or political establishment has been directed at other, equally important threats, but it has not worked.

I think the Israelis will be studying for a long time why this was not the case. They will investigate why it happened, what happened. It is indeed a big blow, comparable to 9/11 for Israelis. And the parallels with the 1973 failure that led to the Yom Kippur War are spot on.

The parallels with the 1973 failure that led to the Yom Kippur War are spot on.

Tomas Pojar

It was on the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur War that the then Israeli security forces underestimated the possibility of an attack by Syria and Egypt. Shouldn’t the anniversary be more of a reason for caution in itself?

Here’s how we look at it in retrospect. Many Israelis no doubt think that it was meant to be, but there are a lot of such anniversaries and many times, even unnecessarily, various measures are taken that might not be so expensive and sometimes even draconian. They really missed the mark here and underestimated the attack by Hamas with Islamic Jihad.

The border between the Gaza Strip and Israel was guarded. According to some analyses, however, this situation shows the limits of sophisticated technology and indicates how the physical presence of soldiers is still necessary today. Do you agree with that?

If the sophisticated systems were actually used as they should be used, and if there were enough troops on the ground, then maybe the border would be breached, but not in so many places and not with such surprise.

Yes, it must be a combination of soldiers and technology. Technology alone will not solve anything. Ultimately, you need to have people there. Again, it is not that the technologies are useless and that the border does not work until now. It worked against threats and attempts to cross it from the past.

Everyone is innovating – even Hamas. All terrorist organizations are trying to come up with something new. And the other side must also anticipate and innovate. At the same time, it cannot outsource everything to technology. They must have advanced technologies, but they must not believe that they are a defense in themselves.

If you don’t have soldiers in place, you won’t be able to defend yourself because any technology can be outwitted.

A danger to Europe?

Is the violence in danger of spreading from Israel to other parts of the world? That attacks on Jewish targets would also appear in Europe, for example?

Of course there is a risk. I think in some countries more, but everyone should be prepared and take it seriously. I don’t think there will be a series of attacks, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of individual attacks. After all, a kosher store in London has already been attacked.

Look at how people in many European and North American cities are demonstrating for the terrorist organization and its successes in massacring the civilian population. The pods are definitely here.

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Is it appropriate to strengthen security measures in the Czech Republic as well?

I think the police are doing what they have to do and so are the intelligence services. All the mechanisms are working and everyone is evaluating the situation. Undoubtedly, the priority is the protection of selected objects. I assume everyone is dedicated to it as they should.

Half a century ago, after the Yom Kippur War, an investigative commission was established, which cleared the then Israeli Prime Minister, but she subsequently resigned anyway. Do you expect a similar development this time as well? Will there be a commission of inquiry and could it lead to the end of Benjamin Netanyahu?

I am deeply convinced that commissions of inquiry will be established, and probably very soon after the round of fighting has died down. It’s in the Israeli tradition, it didn’t just happen after the Yom Kippur War. It was after a whole series of other military campaigns or defensive battles and wars.

We’ll see how it plays out politically. This may indeed spell the end for Benjamin Netanyahu, but if he can handle the situation and if Israel emerges significantly strengthened, it may strengthen him as well. It doesn’t have to mean the end of it. But it’s pure speculation, nobody knows at this point and we’ll see how it turns out.

Does the terrorist organization Hamas cooperate with Iran? Where did she get such a large arsenal? And can the situation postpone the conclusion of international security agreements? Listen to the full interview.

2023-10-09 17:02:04
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