An infectious variant of monkeypox is spreading in Congo in a new way – A virologist assesses the threat of a pandemic – 2024-04-02 10:00:51

Olli Vapalahti says that, for example, in mammals in fur farms, bird flu can combine with another influenza virus, which can lead to the development of a virus that can be transmitted from person to person. Mikko Huisko

A new version of the monkeypox virus, which is contagious in a different way, is spreading in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, says the professor of zoonotic virology at the University of Helsinki Olli Vapalahti.

Unlike the previous epidemic, the new line is potentially contagious in slightly different chains of infection. In the aftermath of the corona pandemic, the monkeypox virus spread around the world, which was renamed by the World Health Organization WHO in 2022. The new English name of the disease is “mpox”, which is an abbreviation of the former monkeypoxfrom the name.

The form of Mpox that spread after the corona was not easily transmitted from one person to another. The form of the virus now spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, located in Central Africa, can be transmitted between people possibly more sensitively and in different types of contact than before.

– There are some signs that it is now spreading in other ways than mainly in sex between men. For example, these types of viruses are making longer chains of infection from person to person than before and are in that sense more likely risks for species transfer to humans than bird flu.

However, he is particularly worried about the spread of the monkeypox virus in Europe or Finland.

– Although there is a record number of diseases, there have been outbreaks of these diseases there before. Only isolated cases have ended up in Europe, where it is reasonably easy to control and there are also diagnostics and a vaccine for the disease.

Bird flu

Virology Tarja Sironen said in an interview with Helsingin Sanomat on Tuesday that the threat of a pandemic has increased again with bird flu. He raised concerns about the return of migratory birds.

According to Vapalahti, the pandemic risk has also increased with regard to H5 bird flu. According to him, the more likely cause of the pandemic could be another influenza virus or mpox.

– But with regard to bird flu, if such a pandemic were to occur, it would be very serious.

He describes the bird flu as an “animal pandemic”, which is already widely affecting wild and farmed birds.

– We already have a huge problem for animals, both wild and farm animals, all over the world, and in that sense we can already talk about a pandemic.

Adaptability

Bird flu can also be transmitted from a bird to a person and cause a serious infection.

Viruses change easily when they are transmitted from a different carrier to another. The more opportunities the virus has for mutations, the more likely it is that a pandemic that is also dangerous for humans will start.

Among other things, in mammals in fur farms, bird flu can mutate or combine with another influenza virus, which can also lead to the development of a virus that can be transmitted from person to person.

– Of course, it is also a principled risk for people. With bird flu, it would probably happen so that the virus would mix with viruses that are already better at infecting humans.

Vapalahti illustrates the adaptability of viruses with an analogy: the influenza virus has 8 gene segments, and it can change them in the same way that an 8-member musical band, an octet, can swap its players upside down with another 8-member band. Then two new bands are born, which are a combination of two old ones. New bands reach new audiences.

Influenza viruses can also mutate and infect new groups. However, viruses need a suitable environment to mix.

– For example, mink and pig are animals where this mixing can happen.

How likely is it that bird flu would become contagious from person to person?

– It is possible, but very unlikely. The scenario in which it could happen now is that seasonal human flu and bird flu could mix in, for example, minks.

Vapalahti recommends avoiding touching dead birds and protecting pets so that they don’t get to sniff or peck at birds that have died from the disease.