The authorities are considering reconfiguring to prevent a new rebound in the pandemic. A defense council chaired by Emmanuel Macron took place this Tuesday morning, from which nothing filtered.
And the Minister of Health Olivier Véran will be this Tuesday evening at the 20:00 news of France 2.
He should not announce a tightening of health measures … for now. But the subject is on the table.
What is the health situation in France at the end of the year? The point, in maps and graphics.
1. Mortality which remains very high
It is one of the most “reliable” indicators of the evolution of the pandemic, but it shows a certain “delay”: we do not die from covid-19 when we are infected, but after an aggravation, two to four weeks later.
The deaths of the last few days are therefore, for the most part, sick from the beginning to mid-December, between the reopening of many shops at the end of November and the start of deconfinement in mid-December.
However, the situation is not bright: after a peak reached around mid-November, the number of deaths due to covid is slowly falling, if not at all.
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As this graph shows, the decline began to slow in mid-December, with an average of 250 to 300 deaths every day. That is the average toll of a seasonal flu … every month.
And again: this graph like the following shows only hospital deaths: those of Ehpads not giving rise to daily statistics. However, they represent 30% of the total.
With more than 63,000 deaths recorded (44,000 in hospitals, 19,000 in nursing homes), France has 942 deaths from covid-19 per million inhabitants, ranked 16th in the world.
This second graph shows the “covid” mortality over the whole year: the second wave, if it remained “lower” than the first, extends over an already significantly longer period.
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Since December 20, it has killed more than the first (30,245 between January and July, nearly 33,000 since).
With a more “homogeneous” distribution: according to INSEE, almost all of the departments recorded a high excess mortality this fall, as shown in the map below:
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The finding is similar if we look at the age groups concerned: unsurprisingly, the youngest do not display excess mortality. The two confinements have even, it seems, reduced the mortality of 0-24 year olds.
On the other hand, from the age of 50, excess mortality soars if we compare the three periods of the year 2020 with those of 2019, as shown in this graph:
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And the aging of the population requires, these bad figures weigh heavily on the balance sheet of all French people, with an excess mortality of 26% in the spring, and another 16% in the fall … on December 7. These data, for the second wave, are therefore still very provisional.
2. Hospitals under high voltage
Low temperatures, rain, snow, wind … it will not have escaped anyone that we rush into winter. In terms of health, it is synonymous with many different ailments, which we seem to escape for the moment: few flu, few gastroenteritis. Logical consequence of the barrier gestures that we have been applying for months.
On the other hand, the covid is there, and there it is: on the same diagram as the death curve, the number of hospitalizations has fallen since the second confinement, but slowly, and remaining at a high level.
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French hospitals thus welcome some 25,000 patients hospitalized for covid. Barely below the peak of 33,000 reached in mid-November. And much, much more than in May, shortly after the deconfinement, when the number of hospitalizations was falling day by day.
It has since been understood that if the summer does not “kill” the virus, it is less favorable to it. Winter, therefore, accentuates its virulence and circulation.
The results are a little better in intensive care, but 2,700 people remain concerned at the end of December. A number on the rise in recent days.
This is one of the reasons that prevailed when the ski lifts closed: to avoid too great a population movement, but also to avoid too many injuries in hospitals. The winter sports regions, mainly in eastern France, are among the most affected by the virus.
3. A France cut in two
Because the French are not equal in the face of the circulation of the disease: this second wave literally cuts the country in two. To put it simply, the 50 departments in the east are much more affected than the 50 in the west.
We can see it on this map of the incidence rate (number of new cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants):
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West of a Perpignan-Lille line, only four departments exceed the fateful threshold of 150 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over 7 days. East of this line … only four departments are below.
25 departments have an incidence rate of less than 100: all in the west, except Corsica and Hérault.
What motivate the elected officials of the Grand Est, among those most affected by the first wave, to demand new confinement, at least localized.
Still, these figures are given with three days delay: they still do not include the possible consequences of Christmas trips, which could reshuffle the cards.
But even at the national level, the situation worries: the incidence rate remains very high, at 149.8, just below the maximum alert threshold (150) established in October. And far, far away, from the levels recorded until the end of summer, as this graph shows:
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Above all, it has been showing a worrying increase for several weeks. The future will tell if it gets worse, due to the Christmas holidays or the cold, or if on the contrary the curve starts to fall again. In the first case, it will be difficult to avoid a re-containment as early as January …
4. Vaccines, but …
So of course, the arrival of vaccines could change the situation: since Sunday, the campaign began in France.
First, the most fragile people (residents of nursing homes, people over 75 years old, etc.) are concerned. But all this takes time: as detailed by the Minister of Health, we should not count on having vaccinated volunteers, among the 14 million most vulnerable people, before the end of March.
Until then, all the others will circulate the virus, including towards people at risk who have not yet been vaccinated, or who do not wish to be.
But it is precisely during the three winter months that the epidemic is likely to be the most virulent, with a hospital system more in demand.
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