A government official, strictly anonymous, explains how the cancellation of interest, penalties and premium on all fines and tax debts since the beginning of the century: Trawling. It remains to be seen if less than three nautical miles from the coast. The one prohibited in the European Union because it destroys the reproduction of fish fauna, just as the amnesties erode the propensity of Italians to take the forthcoming requests of the tax authorities seriously. But in metaphor, perhaps proximity to the rocks, i.e. the obligation to take urgent measures in order to collect a small amount of state revenue, cursed, but immediately.
Not so: the Economic and Financial Document (Def) to be approved next week should show that the decline in the deficit continues according to plan, to 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and no more than 3.7% next. perhaps the most notable success of Giorgia Meloni’s government is the fact that the spread between ten-year German and Italian bonds actually fell while the ECB raised rates as rapidly as it had never done in its history. International investors are convinced that Italy will not attempt financial adventures and are acting accordingly.
So no, trawling is not the result of urgency. This umpteenth amnesty — not exclusive to the center-right, after the eponymous scrapping of the folders wanted by Matteo Renzi in 2016 — not a necessary act. rather seen in the government, explains those who participate in it, as a duty because it was promised to voters last summer with the euphemism of fiscal peace. Always seen by the government, it would also be a way to free the Revenue Agency of an enormous amount of tax credits destined to devalue and remain unpaid: it does not matter that the amnesty could always generate new ones, precisely because taxpayers could always feel encouraged to tax infidelity.
Not said, however, that the public finance picture is completely cloudless. Growth holds, the deficit also; yet the unloading of the costs of the 2020-2022 home bonuses will cause the decline in debt to slow down drastically compared to what has been announced in recent months, by this government and by the previous one. In the tables of the Def, a debt decline of just 0.7% or 0.8% of GDP per year in 2023 and 2024 could emerge. Less than, for example, Germany is asking the most indebted countries in the new stability pact.
Negotiations with Brussels will therefore be delicate, with one more aspect to take into account: the Def projections on debt do not yet calculate the impact of new loans (perhaps between 1% and 2% of GDP) that Italy would like to ask Brussels for the RePowerEU measures on energy. The objective of a reduction in debt therefore remains on the brink. Growth measures will certainly help with an upcoming bill that facilitates access by small and medium-sized enterprises to the capital market. Designed, this, in continuity with the government of Mario Draghi.
