The Potential Collapse of Gulf Stream Could Have Devastating Effects on Climate
Dramatic Climate Changes
AMOC — the abbreviation means nothing to most people living along the eastern seaboard of the United States, the Maritimes in Canada, Greenland, Scandinavia, the UK, and Europe, but it is of critical importance to them. AMOC stands for the Atlantic meridional overturning current, a vast river in the Atlantic Ocean that transports heat from the Equator north along the East Coast of America before turning to the east at Cape Cod and Nova Scotia and heading toward the Arctic, then down the west coast of Europe and back down toward the Equator.
AMOC is better known as the Gulf Stream. To understand it, think of the cooling system in a conventional car. Coolant circulates throughout the engine, picking up heat from the cylinders. Then it travels to the radiator, where it is cooled before returning to the engine to be heated again. If the coolant stops flowing, the engine gets too hot and the radiator gets too cool. The car stops running and the driver is left stranded on the side of the road.
A water pump attached to the engine makes the coolant circulate in the car’s cooling system but what makes the water in the Gulf Stream move? The simple answer is the trade winds near the equator and the rotation of the Earth. But there are other factors as well. Changes in the density and salinity of ocean water also are important. Hot water is less dense than cold water, so ocean water heated along the equator rises to the surface. Water that is less salty is also less dense and floats above saltier water.
The Potential Collapse of Gulf Stream
In a research paper published in the journal Science Advances, three oceanographers strongly warn that the AMOC current, also known as the Gulf Stream, is slowing and could potentially stop flowing altogether in the near future — possibly in a few decades. This could lead to catastrophic consequences that will impact various regions around the world.
The study is the first to utilize complex simulations and include multiple factors to track the strength of the oceanic circulation, which shows signs of slowing. According to the study, if the Gulf Stream collapses, London could experience an average cooling of 18°F and Bergen, Norway, could cool by 27°F. Along North America’s east coast, significant sea-level rise is expected, posing a threat to cities and seaside communities in that area.
“We are moving closer [to the collapse], but we’re not sure how much closer,” says oceanographer Rene van Westen. “We are heading towards a tipping point.” According to the study, the resulting consequences could be calamitous.
The Gulf Stream is an enormous river that transports water at an astonishing rate of 30 million cubic meters per second — far more than the combined flow of all the terrestrial rivers in the world. When the stream reaches Greenland and the Arctic, the water has cooled and become denser, also growing saltier. This denser, colder water then descends more than 4,000 meters to the ocean floor, where it begins flowing back towards the Equator.
However, global warming is causing a significant increase in meltwater from the Greenland and Arctic ice sheets. The influx of fresh water, which is less dense than the water in the AMOC, disrupts the normal circulation of the Gulf Stream.
The Possibility of AMOC’s Shutdown
The AMOC has historically experienced shutdowns, and researchers suggest that it could potentially stop flowing again in the next 100 years. A recent study used computer models to simulate changes in the global climate over a 2,000-year period. It concluded that a slow decline in AMOC strength over time can result in a sudden collapse occurring in less than 100 years, triggering a disastrous chain of events.
These findings provide a clear answer regarding the possibility of such a tipping point. The research warns that the consequences of AMOC collapse could be severe. Sea levels in the Atlantic could rise by a meter in certain regions, flooding numerous coastal cities. The wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would reverse, greatly endangering the already weakened rainforest. Temperatures worldwide would become more erratic, with the southern hemisphere experiencing warmer conditions and Europe encountering a dramatic cooling and decreased rainfall. These changes would occur at a rate 10 times faster than the current rate, making adaptation nearly impossible.
Lead author of the study, René van Westen, emphasizes the devastating nature of the collapse. He acknowledges the absence of sufficient data to accurately predict the exact timeline, but warns of the alarming direction we are moving in. “We are moving towards it. That is kind of scary,” van Westen said. “We need to take climate change much more seriously.”
Another research conducted by Danish researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen supports these findings. They state that there is substantial evidence the AMOC could collapse between 2025 and 2095. If this happens, it would disrupt the rainfall patterns crucial for crops in regions like India, South America, and West Africa. Additionally, it would result in increased storms, lower temperatures in Europe, rising sea levels on the east coast of North America, and further endangerment of the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
These studies provide an alarming conclusion — the collapse of the Gulf Stream could have irreversible consequences on a global scale. Humanity should urgently acknowledge the severity of climate change and the potential dangers it presents.
It is essential to minimize and phase-out the burning of fossil fuels, which has already released an extraordinary amount of heat into the environment due to the increasing CO2 emissions. The impact of our rapid consumption of fossil fuels is comparable to emptying a swimming pool into a bathtub and then being surprised by the overflow.
Clearly, the urgency to take action is paramount to prevent further degradation of our planet and protect the future of human survival.
