Are you satisfied with the economic situation of the country? Do you agree with the handling of security? Do you agree with the handling of the pandemic? the mexicans they would answer no. If approval was consulted on AMLO, 6 out of ten would say yes. Popular acceptance of AMLO it’s a mystery.
While 2020 was the year of the decline of his fame, 2021 allowed him to overcome difficulties: the defeat of Trump; the pandemic and the economy. AMLO started 2021 with an average acceptance of 60%, which contrasts with the volatility of 2020. It is a high average, because in January 2021, 60.4% of businessmen failed it. The latest data (EL UNIVERSAL) is that 63% of Mexicans approve of his style of governing.
Mexican presidents have enjoyed popularity, but also have a bad reputation. How far was the economy, inflation or GDP growth determining popularity? It is not a simple equation: Miguel de la Madrid, unpopular president, had economic data against him: 91.11% of the average growth of inflation and only 0.30% of average annual growth in his six-year term. If these parameters were final, Gustavo Diaz Ordaz it would be on a pedestal. Inflation in his management was low 2.60%, while the average annual growth of the START it was an enviable 6.22, only that Tlatelolco liquidated it.
Miguel Aleman, a charismatic president, whose popularity derived from his captivating smile, had mediocre financial ratings. The six-year inflation was 9.76%, even though the GDP grew 5.76%. The champion of economic growth was López Portillo 6.48%, although inflation, like the peso, got out of hand 29.97%. These figures do not count, history will not forget the Hill of the Dog.
AMLO’s approval has no connection to the economy. If it had it, it would have to resign: in 2020 GDP fell to -9.8, when it had promised growth of 4%. In the second quarter of 2019, starting his administration, one million jobs had been lost. The only economic data that AMLO festina is the exchange rate, more or less stable (actually due to external factors: the TMEC, the management of Covid-19 and the arrival of vaccines).
His approval and popularity derives from his style and way of doing politics. The more he irritates his opponents, the more wills he incorporates in his favor. Most Mexicans had been waiting for decades for who knows what miracle would save them. AMLO has been the desired president for the last 18 years (Fox, Calderon Y Peña grandson). Modest in his personal habits, without aristocratic rudeness, present every morning to make an apology for illusions, AMLO will end his term in four years that are still missing, selling dreams that the majority share.
Mexico it goes contrary to the world and modernity, but that does not disturb the 4T. Illusions who accompany him live by illusions in this incomprehensible management of occurrences. AMLO is a populist, no doubt about it, but he is also a popular leader. The more tense the relationship between those who adore him and those who hate him, the greater the acceptance it generates among those who aspire to equality and social justice. In addition, it must be admitted, these days and for many years, AMLO is the only leader in the country, the only politically visible.
The approval of the president will be a crucial factor when the midterm elections arrive in June. These elections will be a referendum of his administration. Everything indicates that the preference of more than 60% will be reflected in the elections of the June 6th. Whatever the outcome of the elections, there is nothing to indicate that AMLO will modify the plans to transform the country.
National researcher at the SNI
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