Donald Trump has a dangerous enemy following him every step of the way. This is his unpredictable self. His associates are well aware that he can at any time kick the milk cart, threatening for no reason to make it more difficult for the Republicans to return to the White House. That danger was on display in his admittedly self-destructive appearance at the Association of African American Journalists conference in Chicago on Wednesday. The questions were tough but fair at the same time. The tone and style of the journalists was perhaps a little more aggressive than it should have been. However, even this small amount of pressure was enough to throw off the former president. Trump was visibly annoyed and certainly couldn’t contain himself.
In the inelegant way that characterizes him, he wondered if the Kamala Harris is “finally Indian or black”, inflaming the debate and forcing his staff to remove him from the event one by one. The reason his aides put him on that stage was because they knew he needed to appeal to black voters for fear of Harris reviving his famous electoral coalition Barack Obama.
The problem for Republicans
Those who do the math of the election see more and more the possibility that the game will be decided in a single State. She is the North Carolina, which Trump managed to hold onto in 2020 by just nearly a point and a half. The problem for Republicans is that this marginal majority could easily be overturned if African-Americans, who make up 12 percent, turn out in droves to support Harris. It is telling that a former Republican White House official estimated that Trump got carried away and spoke so bluntly in Chicago because he was mindful of the danger he faces in North Carolina.
After the noise any other candidate would have kept his mouth shut for a while, waiting for the “unfortunate” statements to be forgotten. Anyone but Trump. Those who know him, know well that even in the worst scandals he does not remain silent. He repeats and overstates the controversial statements. This is exactly what he did with the case of Harris’ ancestry. He also has a second tendency: when he feels threatened, as now when Harris is up against him, he slips away and takes refuge in the die-hard base of his most loyal followers.
“Believers” are not enough
This base will follow him wherever and whenever he leads it. The problem, however, is that on this basis alone he is not going to make it even outside the front door of the White House. So his team is well aware that it needs minorities like African-Americans and Hispanics. He needs women and moderate conservatives. And above all, he needs to not appear unstable and dangerous because in that case he will force disgruntled Democratic supporters to get off the couch and go vote.
For all these reasons most Republicans are watching with dismay the handling of the disastrous Chicago interview. They feel that Trump’s attacks not only miss the mark but end up backfiring against them. That’s why they want to stick to the message that Harris is a dangerous liberal who will endanger Americans’ safety, leave the border unguarded, overtax them and take away their private health insurance. All these strikes are believed to be able to find a target. However, they require the same discipline from Trump.
The Democrats and the working class
Democrats have noticed a troubling trend. They are losing working class voters who should be their prime audience. And as if that weren’t enough, they see Trump’s running mate, Jay Dee Vanceto overtake them from the left, presenting them as elitists of the great metropolitan centers of the east and west coasts.
Democrats often appear to exhaust their progressivism on issues of identity and social issues, without “breaking” with big business interests. On social issues, Kamala cannot make dramatic changes. But a shift toward the center on security and energy issues has already begun. Perhaps with the help of the right vice president this will be a turn he will manage to take more easily.
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