America is an option to the global food crisis

Given the urgency of avoiding a food crisis due to the lack of wheat, soybeans and corn due to the war in Ukraine, The United States (EU), Brazil and Argentina could play a decisive role with their exports, but this potential has some cracks, such as the rise in prices, the drought in the south of the continent and the need for a more technical agriculture.

With the uncertainty about the situation in Ukraine, the prices of agricultural products, fertilizers and natural gas have skyrocketed reaching historical records such as, for example, the case of cereals, which in February rose 3% compared to the previous month, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Russia and Ukraine are known as “the breadbasket of Europe” and account for 29% of world wheat exports and 19% of corn. But trade is paralyzed by the war, which It has put at risk a food system on which nearly 44 countries depend.

In this context, although the cereals produced by America represent a valuable alternative, the countries of the southern hemisphere show, according to this expert, several factors against them: “uncertainty, climate change that affects harvests and the need to have a more mechanized” in order to respond to a high production capacity.

The moment for me

Restrepo maintains that this is the moment for the United States and its exports, “because it is stronger in geostrategic terms and has the tools” to supply “some African countries. “But to guarantee that – he says – you have to act carefully to avoid chaos in the face of what is coming.”

It is estimated that this year The United States will increase its corn exports to make up for its shortage, but will sell less wheat than initially planned to give priority to domestic demand.

The US Government Department of Agriculture estimates that domestic producers will increase their sales abroad by more than two billion kilograms of corn compared to its previous forecast, up to a total of 67.5 billion for the 2021/2022 season.

Regarding wheat, however, the forecast is that the war in Ukraine will not only not increase US exports but will also reduce them, since most of this product has already been sold on the futures market.

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