With the victory of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, European leaders who had expressed their disapproval of him are trying to accept reality. British Foreign Secretary David Lamy congratulated Trump on his election and said, “I felt deep in my bones that Trump could become president.” He reversed his previous criticism that “(Trump) hates women, is delusional, dishonest, xenophobic and narcissistic.” Europe’s hatred of Trump is even more severe than in 2017. It is almost certain that serious and lasting fractures will occur in the transatlantic alliance over the next four years. It could irreparably damage an alliance that has been the cornerstone of the development of world civilization for a century.
Trump’s second term raises concerns about tensions
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A second Trump administration could strain relations with Europe to the breaking point on at least three key fronts. The first is the war in Ukraine. European leaders know that U.S. aid to Ukraine will end next year and that some form of peace deal will be reached. I am also confident that Russia will become stronger and bolder. The second is trade. Europe’s already weak economy could be hit by tariffs on exports to the United States, and a broader global economic conflict could threaten Europe’s stability. The third is climate change. Trump’s strategy of pursuing growth centered on fossil fuels is tantamount to apostasy to Europe’s ‘climate religionists’. In the Middle East, the United States, which is staunchly pro-Israel, could create tensions with Europeans who sympathize with Palestine.
No doubt Trump’s style will deepen the rifts, but Europeans are essentially responsible for their own predicament. When it comes to Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom have followed the reckless policies of the Joe Biden administration. Ukraine is armed enough to continue the war, but it does not have a good chance of victory. Europe is beginning to realize how flawed this approach is.
Europe in crisis due to weakening alliances
Countries within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are acknowledging that the days of free riding on U.S. military spending are over. Europe has pursued its own protectionism in many areas of trade. Regulatory measures that stifle innovation and dynamism have severely constrained economic performance, leaving the EU falling further and further behind the United States. Trade wars don’t produce good economic results for anyone. Europe is currently in a much worse position to deal with the consequences than other regions.
Europe created its own problems. The obsession with reducing carbon footprints at the expense of growth has done little to save the planet from warming and has dramatically weakened European economies. As Europe embraced the Palestinian cause, hostility toward Israel grew. Last week saw Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicted at the International Criminal Court and European leaders vowing to arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot on their territory. Europe’s reckless pursuit of economic ties with China has created a dependency that is now difficult to break, with increasingly negative implications for Europe’s own security. It is inevitable that the importance of transatlantic relations will decrease with the rise of Indo-Pacific countries.
The United States can survive this weakening relationship. But it’s not clear whether Europe can do that.
원제 ‘The U.S. and Europe May Be Headed for a Divorce’
## “Trump’s back: A New Cold War Brewing Between the West?”
**A World Today News Exclusive Interview with Dr. Sophia Dubois, Professor of Transatlantic Relations at the University of Oxford**
**World Today News:** Dr. Dubois, the political landscape has shifted dramatically with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Europe’s initial reaction to his victory has been muted,but many are interpreting it as veiled hostility. Is a new Cold War brewing between the West?
**Dr. Dubois:** It’s certainly a tense moment. While some European leaders like David Lammy are extending congratulations, their pronouncements ring hollow given their past criticisms of Trump. The underlying animosity remains palpable.
Trump’s policies on trade, climate change, and NATO have already strained transatlantic relations. His “America First” agenda directly challenges Europe’s vision for a multilateral world order.
We’re witnessing a clash of fundamental ideologies.
**World Today News:** How has the European perspective on Trump evolved as 2017?
**Dr. Dubois:** In 2017, Europe was bewildered and apprehensive. There was a sense of shock and disbelief. Now, there’s a deeper understanding of Trump’s worldview and a sense of resignation, perhaps even fear.
Trump’s retoric and actions over the past four years have solidified his image as a disruptor.
Europeans fear his unpredictability, his disregard for conventional alliances, and his admiration for authoritarian leaders.
**World Today News:** Do you believe Europe can bridge the widening gap with the United States under Trump’s leadership?
**Dr. Dubois:**
Bridging the gap will be a Herculean task. Successful diplomacy requires trust and mutual respect, elements that seem scarce at present.
Europe will need to be strategic and assertive in defending its interests. Strengthening its internal unity and forging closer ties with othre global players will be crucial.
however, the potential for a full-blown ”Cold War” remains a real possibility.
**World Today News:** What are the potential consequences of a transatlantic rift for the global order?
**Dr. Dubois:** A fractured West would have profound consequences. International institutions would be weakened, multilateralism eroded, and global challenges like climate change and terrorism would become harder to tackle.
Moreover, a divided West could open the door for other global powers to assert themselves, perhaps leading to a more multipolar and less stable world order.
**World Today News:** What message should Europe send to the United States?
**Dr. Dubois:** Europe should communicate its commitment to shared values like democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.It needs to emphasize the mutual benefits of a strong transatlantic partnership while firmly articulating its own interests and red lines.
The coming years will be a test of Europe’s diplomatic skill and resilience.
The world is watching.
