A week before the seventh early elections, the national representative survey of the “Alpha Research” agency registered a weak response to the campaign among voters, another low voter turnout, and a high probability of maintaining the strength of the dividing lines in the 51st parliament as well. This is indicated by the data of their research among 1,000 adult citizens from all over the country, conducted in the period October 20-23, 2024. and realized with own funds.
Campaign evaluation and expected turnout
Judging by people’s ratings, we are at the end of another lackluster election campaign focused on tightening the ranks of hardliners, according to data obtained by Alpha Research. According to 56% of the adult citizens of the country, there is no sign that elections are coming in their settlements.
Against the background of this apathy, the feedback on the pre-election atmosphere given by just over a quarter of those surveyed, according to which in their environment the strength of arguments competes with the arguments of strength, is truly disturbing: for 14% (mostly residents of smaller settlements in areas with a mixed population) the campaign was tense, with conflicts between party representatives; another 13% shared about attempts to attract support through material, financial incentives, through direct or indirect pressure. With a positive experience from the campaign, only 17% shared a calm campaign, with meetings and conversations between representatives of the various political forces, the agency commented on the research.
According to “Alpha Research”, in this situation with apathy or coercion dominating the country, no serious signs of voter mobilization are registered.
30%-32% of the respondents declared their willingness to go to the polls, which means an activity of about 2 million voters. Mobilization of a protest or punitive vote is possible in some places, which could slightly increase participation, but there are no indications that a more serious wave could be raised.
Mobilization is present only among the strongest sympathizers of the parties, and the so-called electoral fringes of vacillating voters remain passive. If the registered low turnout is maintained, it is possible to switch between the parties that are in close positions, as well as to enter the parliament of any of the formations located near the 4% barrier.
Electoral support for parties and coalitions
Both at the beginning of the campaign and at its end, the attitudes of the voters outline a 7-party parliament, with some probability for an eighth participant:
• GERB-SDS managed to achieve high mobilization among their supporters and secure a comfortable lead over their opponents. They end the campaign with 26.5% support among those determined to vote, and their first place is one of the few sureties in the upcoming elections.
• PP-DB (14.9%) and Vazrazhdane (14.2%) continue to argue for second place. Both formations face challenges. PP-DB have not yet managed to regain the support of the voters who withdrew in June. Vazrajdane faces competition from formations positioning themselves in the radical-populist niche, such as ITN and MECH.
• Among the fiercest battles is the one between the two wings of the DPS.
A week before the vote, the positions of the Ahmed Dogan Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (7.9%) and the wing around Delyan Peevski DPS – New Beginning (7.4%) are almost equal. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms has a larger reserve of wavering voters, DPS-New Beginning has stronger institutional positions among the mayors of the settlements where the vote of the Bulgarian Turks and Muslims is concentrated. It remains unclear how the vote will develop abroad.
• BSP – United Left (7.2%) and ITN (6.1%) are the other two participants that complete the picture of the seven-party parliament. However, both formations register a relatively lower degree of mobilization, instability and potential dynamics in support.
• Below the 4 percent barrier, but closest to it, are MECH (3.8%), Blue Bulgaria (2.7%) and Velichie (2.6%). Although a record-low 80,000 votes may be needed to enter parliament, it is unlikely that two parties will be able to muster them. It is more likely that only one of these formations will capitalize on the migrating emotional and protest vote. An option for protest-minded voters remains the “I do not support anyone” option, which is chosen by about 3% of those who decided to go to the polls.
In conclusion, in a seven-party parliament, GERB and PP-DB can be close to a majority and seek the support of a third partner to form a government.
Given the previous requests from both formations, the situation still seems difficult to resolve. Voters’ expectations, however, are unequivocally for finding an option for a regular government. A new failure would delegitimize the entire political class, according to the conclusions of “Alpha Research”.
The present study was conducted in the period October 20-23, 2024. by “Alfa Research”, is published on the agency’s website and is implemented with its own funds. The survey was conducted among 1,000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
The sociological toolkit reflects voluntarily shared assessments, attitudes and intentions to vote on October 27, but the share of bought, controlled or coerced votes remains outside its scope.
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