/ world today news/ If the elections are held today, GERB receives the support of 25.1% of those who decided to vote (about 2 points less than in April), and PP-DB – 20.2% (a drop of about 5 points). This is according to a study by Alpha Research.
Three months after the early parliamentary vote and weeks after the broadcast of the “Denkov-Gabriel” cabinet, socio-political attitudes stand out with a sober realism about what is desired and possible in the current situation – this is indicated by the results of the periodic monitoring of Alpha Research, realized in the period 20 – June 26, 2023, among 1,000 adult residents of the country by the method of direct standardized interview with tablets.
The specific dimensions of these attitudes at the end of June are:
Initial confidence in the cabinet of 20%, still a high share of neutral ratings (43%) and 37% mistrust. Better but also polarized initial personal rating of Prime Minister N. Denkov (26% trust, 30% distrust, 44% neutral attitude).
Approval of the activities of the 49th NA of the “sanitary” minimum of 8 percent, against 53% disapproval and 39% neutral opinion.
A progressive decline in trust and a first-of-its-kind polarization in the attitude towards President Rumen Radev, reflecting the dividing lines in society: 33% positive, 32% negative and 35% neutral attitude towards him.
Expected electoral damage for the leading political formations, but preservation of the overall framework of the last vote. GERB received the support of 25.1% of those who decided to vote (about 2 points less than in April), and PP-DB – 20.2% (a drop of about 5 points). No change in support for other parties in the last two months: third position for Vazrazhdane with 15.4%, followed by DPS (12.6%), BSP (8.8%), ITN (4.1%).
A close contest looms in the mayoral seat battle in the fall. Predominance of preferences for the election of new mayors (49%) over the desire to keep the current ones (41%) and a high probability of a runoff in a larger number of municipalities compared to the last local vote of 2019.
A closer analysis reveals the following relief behind these generalized trends:
Political attitudes and trust in institutions and parties
The desire to overcome the political crisis and get out of the cycle of caretaker governments has been repeatedly registered in express sociological surveys of Alpha Research. This position continues to meet with the highest approval among the public, despite the sharp political attacks to which the “Denkov-Gabriel” cabinet was subjected since the day of its voting in the National Assembly. 48% of the adult citizens of the country share the opinion that a government between the first two political forces is not ideal, but it is the best of the possible options. The two most actively launched arguments against him receive a significantly weaker public response: 14 percent believe that the government between GERB and PP-DB is a betrayal of their own voters, and 13% – that it is harmful to the country. 77% of GERB’s April voters, 76% of PP-DB’s, more than 40% of those who voted for other parties and every third of those who did not participate in the vote stand behind the general government.
The scandal-ridden negotiations between the two political forces, however, raised tensions and “consumed” the initial credit of trust in the government. It opens with 20% approval, 37% disapproval and 43% neutral. Prime Minister N. Denkov’s starting personal rating is more favorable (but the same in structure): 26% positive, 30% negative and 44% neutral ratings.
Attitudes towards the other two centers of power in the country – the parliament and the presidential institution – are also affected by a negative trend. The 49th National Assembly began work with a record low rating (typical of the end rather than the beginning of a mandate). Only 8% of Bulgarians evaluate his activity positively, 53% – negatively, 39% – no opinion.
President Rumen Radev retains the highest level of trust among institutional representatives, but his rating eroded significantly after public opposition to the formation of a regular government. For the first time since he took office, the attitude towards the head of state is highly polarized, the support – wavering, and his personal image with a negative trend: 33% positive, 32% negative and 35% neutral.
Unlike the influence on institutions, the electoral picture is less affected by political turbulence, mainly due to the fact that it continues to mainly reflect the attitudes of hard cores rather than a wider range of voters. Its general structure repeats that of the vote at the beginning of April, with expected damages for GERB and PP-DB after they enter general government. GERB lost just under 2 points and currently enjoys the support of 25.1%. B. Borisov, however, despite the upheavals surrounding his personality in the last month, managed to maintain his personal rating (20.5% positive and 55.6% negative attitude) and the support of the majority of GERB voters.
With PP-DB, the outflow is slightly below 5 points and they occupy the second position with 20.2%. The dynamics of support for the coalition, as well as that of trust in its leaders, outline a tendency to redistribute the burden between “We continue the change” and “Democratic Bulgaria”. The ratio of party supporters, which used to be strongly in favor of the PP, is now significantly more balanced (around 60:40). Trust in Hr. Ivanov increased from 14.5% to 16.9% (46.1% distrust), to A. Atanasov from 8.3% to 11.0% (49.3% distrust), to Vl. Panev remains within 9.8% (39.5% mistrust). Approval for the leaders of the PP shows, albeit a slight decline, and currently K. Petkov receives 15.9% positive against 58.5% negative evaluations, and A. Vasilev 16.5% positive against 53.6% negative evaluations.
“Vazrazhdane” retains the third position in the voters’ preferences with the support of 15.4%. Behind the party stand the social circles that supported it in the vote in April – middle generations, from the city centers with an average social status. Trust in K. Kostadinov is 15.1%, but he is among the leaders registering one of the highest levels of distrust – 59.6%.
DPS sympathizers are within the usual level of 12.6% in a non-election situation. Confidence in the leader M. Karadai is 11.2% against 53.8% distrust.
The support for the BSP is also identical to that of the last elections – 8.8%, as well as the approval for the leader K. Ninova – 13.1%.
ITN won the potential vote of 4.1% of voters, and the leader Sl. Trifonov – 12.5% approval against 51.7% disapproval.
For the moment, no new significant player on the political field is emerging. The parties below the barrier fail to attract the disenchanted, nor to attract the non-voters.
Overall, the series of early parliamentary elections, crises and dramatic negotiations to form a regular government have exhausted the public’s patience to the max, and the willingness to participate in a potential new vote continues to decline. The ball is in the hands of the rulers and how they play it depends on the support they will enjoy in the coming months, incl. of the local vote. However, the clear signal from the public is that it is not inclined to support “keeping the score” but expects a “decent ranking”.
Early diagnosis of local elections
The local elections in the fall are just over three months away. Therefore, it is understandable both the launching of candidates to attack key mayoral posts and the highlighting of some significant trends. The national survey is not representative of individual municipalities, where attitudes require independent surveys, but it shows the following characteristic features:
Strong polarization along the axis of “continuity or change in local government” – 41% of those with the right to vote would prefer the current mayor to continue to rule in their municipality, and 49% are in favor of electing a new one. In the looming contentious battle at the local level, residents of big cities overwhelmingly want new faces in government, while in smaller municipalities sympathies are with the current mayors. The challenges for the new candidates are related to their lower popularity, and for the current mayors – with a possible wave of protests in the second round.
The understandings about whether the mayor should be a party or an independent candidate are also controversial. There are 45% for a party candidate, and 39% for an unaffiliated political candidate. 7% of respondents would support a mayor close to the president, Rumen Radev. Which probably means that if the hypothesis of presidential candidates for mayors comes to pass, they will probably play as “independents”. Political candidates for mayors are preferred by supporters of the parties represented in power at the local or national level – GERB, PP-DB and DPS. The supporters of ITN and Vazrazhdane are mostly behind the independent candidates, while BSP voters remain polarized.
In the upcoming local elections, several basic clashes are emerging – between the status quo and change, between party and “independent” candidates. The results will be decided in each municipality separately, but a number of contested battles can be expected, the outcome of which will have its impact on the national level as well.
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