Up to 30,000 Russian soldiers are isolated and impoverished in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine. Intelligence experts believe these forces will attempt to negotiate a ceasefire during a retreat.
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Ukraine must regularly attack strategically important bridges in the city of Kherson he physically isolated 15,000-30,000 Russian soldiers. They are located on the north side of the Dnipro River in the southern region of Kherson.
This prevents Russia from adding heavier reinforcements, ammunition and weapon systems. Now the forces are partly exhausted and there is a lack of heavier ammunition at the same time as Ukraine slowly moving forward and Cherson.
– Food and the like are probably transported by boat, but when you are given only lighter ammunition and weapons to fight with … It’s not a sustainable situation, Norwegian Defense College intelligence dean Tom Røseth tells the VG.
– It is incredibly frustrating to be an advanced soldier without artillery support. Then you are more alone. You are exposed both in attack and in defense.
The Dnipro River is 400 meters wide at its narrowest point and with a strong flow of water.
Ukraine could cut off the water supply
When Russia recognizes that it will not be able to establish a connecting bridge and that the situation will continue to persist, the question is whether it will let the forces fight until they are defeated or pull them out, he explains.
From Røseth’s point of view, the latter is operationally intelligent: being able to keep southern Kherson.
– By winter, I would like to think that it will be cleared up and that the front line will be moved further south along the Dnipro River.
This will be closer in the direction of the Crimean peninsula than Russia annexed in 2014.
Russia’s main challenge if it loses control over southern Kherson is that Ukraine can choose to shut off Crimea’s water supply, Røseth explains.
Crimea depends on both electricity and water from Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine: Russia builds a retreat link
The chief of staff of the Ukrainian forces said Saturday Facebook that the Russians are preparing a retreat by building a link, consisting of nine submerged vehicles, across the Dnipro.
– Russia is constantly trying to build pontoon bridges, but Ukraine destroys them, says Røseth.
He explains that the retreat can take place by ferry, but that Russia will then have to leave large quantities of military equipment.
– It is entirely possible that Russian forces will negotiate a ceasefire locally during a possible retreat, says Høgseth.
A retreat would be risky because the forces would therefore be very exposed to attack.
– We have seen it several times, says Røseth.
Seen from Moscow, the withdrawal will be awkward
When the Russians repaired a bridge or built a pontoon bridge to haul trucks loaded with ammunition to isolated forces, Ukraine struck as equipment was to be transported across the river – and destroyed it.
Ukraine’s strategy has also been to allow reinforcements, in order to block the new forces in the area north of the river.
– It is not certain that Moscow will agree to the negotiations for a ceasefire, nor is it certain that Ukraine will accept it. Russia did not give Ukraine this opportunity in Mariupol.
– Will a withdrawal be embarrassing for Russia?
– Seen from Moscow, it is embarrassing, when Ukraine also fought hard and smart during the Kharkiv counter-offensive. A retreat is not part of the narrative that the Ukrainian army and politicians sent young people to the front to be cannon fodder.
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