From Bakhmut (AFP)
Some of Ukraine’s European allies are increasingly skeptical that its military will be able to achieve a decisive breakthrough this year, especially since Russia’s defenses have had time to prepare before the onslaught looms.
The mood among Western officials marks a sharp departure from late last year, when Kiev surprised its allies as well as Russia with successful counterattacks that recaptured swathes of occupied territory.
This fueled hopes that Kiev forces would be able to achieve more breakthroughs this year, which would tip the momentum of the war in their favour, according to a report by Bloomberg.
Now Kiev’s allies are curbing their expectations and considering the need for intense fighting until 2024, according to European officials involved in efforts to shore up the Ukrainian military.
pessimistic assessment
The trove of classified documents, whose leakage sparked outrage in Kiev, revealed that US officials were presenting their pessimistic assessment of the outlook six to eight weeks ago.
The fears expressed afterward still linger among some of Ukraine’s allies, despite the arrival of billions of dollars in NATO munitions and weapons since then.
While a Ukrainian push towards the city of Melitopol in the south, with the aim of dividing Russian forces, is widely expected, some European officials now doubt that it can be achieved this year.
From Bakhmut (AFP)
Instead, a more realistic goal now seen as a 30-kilometer or more advance would put more capable Ukrainian artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper push in 2024, one of the officials said.
The official added that allies need to act now to boost their production capacity and the support needed to continue those efforts.
A less ambitious push would also likely cost thousands of lives and large amounts of ammunition and equipment because of Russia’s defenses of minefields, trenches and anti-tank concrete built over the winter.
In addition, classified U.S. assessments mostly written in February to early March, and still unconfirmed, indicated concern about Ukrainian vulnerabilities.
American concern
Those problems included the generation and training of the forces needed for such a complex joint force attack, and a dangerously low stockpile of air defense missiles to protect them.
In parallel, the Ukrainian offensive is expected to begin by mid-May and will consist of operations from multiple directions, according to several European defense officials.
One of them said that starting the attack would not necessarily be the main component of the operation, given that Russia was preparing to attack.
(Reuters)
Develop new supply plans
Ukrainian analysts expect the start of a new offensive at a later time, when new forces and equipment are combined to enable what they believe may be the best and perhaps last chance to defeat Russia, while the actual timing and direction of the attack are a secret.
With the war now believed to continue into the next year, the Allies are developing new supply plans.
A second major offensive would require more large-scale deliveries of Western funding, weapons, and ammunition.
Jdam bombs (Reuters)
There would also be a risk that this would run into political opposition in capitals that support Kiev, in addition to capacity constraints.
The documents showed that Ukraine’s chances are not great, but at the same time, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says that his country has provided Kiev with everything it needs.
