The advance of the coronavirus in Italy made the “very serious” situation, with several regions “classified a high risk of a uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic“. It’s been since red alert the weekly report released byHigher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health. Experts confirm that the epidemic is steadily and rapidly worsening, with more and more regions approaching the highest levels of public health risk, with the health system already put to the test. Most of the national territory is compatible with scenario 3, but the Regions or Autonomous Provinces where the transmission speed has already scenario 4.
“All the Regions / PAs – it says – are classified at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the area or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks. It is essential strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions / PA “. Parallel to the increase in cases, there are more and more “strong criticalities of local services and the actual or imminent achievement of critical occupancy thresholds for hospital services in all Regions / PA “, the ISS experts explain referring to the period from 15 to 28 October, the week in which the transmissibility index Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1,72, with most regions showing average levels above the critical threshold of 1.5. There Lombardy with 2.08 it is the region with the highest Rt in the week 26 October – 1 November 2020. They follow the Basilicata with 1.99, Piedmont with 1.97, Molise with 1.88. and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano with 1.87. All other regions, including the Autonomous Province of Trento, have Rt above 1.5, except the Sardinia (1.24), the Market (1.29), the Lazio (1.36), the Sicily (1.4) and the Liguria (1.48).
Not surprisingly, even in the week in question there was a further one strong increase in cases which brings the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100 thousand inhabitants in the period 19 October-1 November (against 279.72 per 100 thousand inhabitants in the period 12-25 October). Over the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 54,377 to 129,238.
In addition to the difficulty of stemming the spread of the virus, ISS experts explain that it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify sources of contagion: “The number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase (74,967 this week against 49,511 the previous week) which exceeds 80% of the new cases reported in some Regions / Pa”, they write. Added to this are the “criticalities in keeping the quality of the data reported to the surveillance system both for timeliness (late notification of cases) and for completeness. This led to a delay in receiving consolidated data from the Regions / PA this week. This constitutes further proof of the general criticality throughout the territory due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation ”which can lead to an underestimation of the transmission speed and incidence.
For this the risk monitoring must be constant, precisely to avoid being unprepared in the event of a sudden increase in cases at the regional level and to isolate the areas where peaks of infections or outbreaks occur: “Regions / PAs are invited to carry out a continuous risk analysis, even at -regional, and to consider a timely increase in mitigation measures in the areas most affected on the basis of the level of risk and on the basis of guidelines “.
The Institute recommends that all local authorities anticipate as a precaution restrictions provided for the immediately higher risk levels, so as to try to stem the spread of the virus in time. “For Regions / PA classified at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month – they explain -, given the high transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to high risk classification, it is recommended to consider quickly anticipate the measures provided for the High risk level and the corresponding scenario as reported in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19’ “.
To be avoided to a minimum, for example, the physical interactions between people in order to ease the pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their own housing nucleus that are not strictly necessary and to stay at home as much as possible.
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