The positivity ratio is still falling, to 1.4 percent. The R-value then increases slightly by 12 percent to 0.80. What should we deduce from that? Is the epidemic gradually regaining strength? We asked Sciensano virologist Steven Van Gucht.
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“The numbers are still falling nicely, but that will slow down at some point. It’s not going to go to zero,” says Van Gucht. “As long as the R-value is below 1, it simply means that the numbers are falling. It is somewhere in line with expectations that we will reach a bottom like a while ago in the United Kingdom and Israel.”
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“The question is, how bad is that? On the one hand, the vaccination campaign is progressing well, on the other, young people and children will not be vaccinated immediately. Then the numbers can still go up and you have to be prepared for that. The question is also how this movement translates into the severity of the virus. This summer we will have fewer admissions to hospitals in any case, the question is what that will mean in the autumn.”
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The vaccination campaign is not yet complete and there are still people waiting for their vaccine. In the meantime you can’t let go of the virus
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For that reason, politics and society must once again determine thresholds. “The threshold for further relaxation was less than 500 ICU beds, I think we need to reconsider that in the longer term,” says Van Gucht, who continues to call for caution. “The vaccination campaign is not yet complete and there are still people waiting for their vaccine. In the meantime, you cannot let go of the virus.”
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“Lockdowns over for good”
That is why, according to Van Gucht, drastic action should not be taken. “Hopefully the time of closures is over for good. In winter, for example, it could be useful to recommend masks on public transport and working from home.”
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“For the time being, we are still doing well: the epidemic is not gaining momentum. But the deeper you sink, the harder it is to get rid of the last remnants of the virus. It will be important not to let the virus gain momentum, as has already happened in Portugal, Scotland and England. Some caution can therefore make a lot of difference, and continue to vaccinate,” concludes the virologist.
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