This March 11 marks the first year of the government of the President Gabriel Boric, who in 2021 was a candidate of the Broad Front and the Communist Party, to which Democratic Socialism later joined with growing force. This Friday the 10th there was also a cabinet change, marked by a certain lack of prolixity, which meant a slight modification in the ministries and a much greater change in the sub-secretariats. It remains to be seen what this new effort by the Executive to refine the team of his direct collaborators translates into.
The week also had certain relevant milestones. In the political and legislative sphere, the Chamber of Deputies He rejected the idea of legislating the tax increase project promoted by the government. Additionally, there was a dispute between the Minister of Education –a true survivor in the modification of the government team– and a deputy from the pro-government coalition itself, on the day before Women’s Day (and the vote on the aforementioned project). Finally, two people died in a shooting these days, which once again reminds us of the daily drama of crime.
Governing has always been difficult, but today it is even more complex. For the government of the young rebels of 2011 and 2012 – formerly experts in explaining what had to be done in La Moneda and how it had to be done – it seems to me that directing the destinies of Chile has even more obstacles.
Added to the lack of preparation of many members of the government teams is an objective issue: the pro-government coalition has a minority in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate. Due to ideology and temperament, this is not a generation prone to seeking agreements, but to carrying out their ideas, so passing laws that make their task easier becomes doubly difficult. This temperament has even created difficulties in keeping the sector itself together, as could be seen in the vote on the tax increase.
The paradigmatic case in the first 365 days was the project of a new fundamental charter, the work of the Constituent Convention, but in which the government was clearly committed, because it considered that the approval of the text was a condition of possibility of the realization of the government program, which could be interpreted as a threat or as a genuine conviction. The popular rejection established a different formula and marked a resounding defeat in the first year of President Boric’s government.
Subsequently there were two projects in which the Executive set its priorities. The first was the aforementioned tax increase rejected in the Chamber of Deputies; the second is double pension reform, which includes a regime change and a new 6% labor tax. This second proposal has neither the votes in Congress nor the will of the citizens, who have clearly expressed themselves in favor of pension funds going to personal accounts and not to some unknown and risky state accounts. What will the government do? Will he seek an agreement, will he risk a new defeat? It is easy to predict that there will not be a fundamental change, since the changes tend to be of names, but not of political line.
In economic matters, a review of the first twelve months sets off some alert notes. Although inflation remains high, there is already a control that will surely take the figure to one digit during this 2023; the dollar has stabilized around $800, after topping $1,000 at some point this year. Other numbers are more discouraging: business and consumer confidence have fallen since March 2022. Other measurements show the risks of ideology and the dangers of refounding: the index of economic policy uncertainty and country risk increased considerably in the middle of the last year, around the plebiscite that would define the new constitution. On two crucial issues, Chile is doing badly and without great capacity to react: this can be seen in the deterioration of employment and the painful figures for economic growth (for all this see “The evolution of the economic and financial figures that mark the first year of President Gabriel Boric in La Moneda”, The MercuryEconomy and Business, March 11, 2023).
To the economic issues must be added those of a social nature, which represent the two main concerns of citizens. The first is the right to live peacefully, move freely through the streets and be able to develop family and professional life with reasonable expectations, confident that the State will decisively face the scourge of crime, because it is convinced that for the inhabitants of this land tranquility, peace, progress and freedom are very important assets. The second refers to the best economic conditions of life and work, which allow greater social progress for people and their families. That was the way it was for decades –certainly from 1984 to 1998, in a large part of the Concertación governments and also during the first government of President Sebastián Piñera– until the virtuous circle that allowed poverty and camps to decrease, that increased the sources of jobs and wages, which made Chile an attractive investment destination and gave the state more resources for social programs (before concentrating on its own inorganic and bureaucratic growth and increasing spending). In the first year of government, both issues have not been dealt with properly, with all that this means in political and social terms.
Regardless of the details –this or that project, this minister or the other, one number going up and another going down– It is evident that in the government of President Gabriel Boric two souls coexist that do not necessarily have to do with the original coalitions, but with the interpretation of recent history, thirty years and the October 2019 revolution. as well as his vision of the future towards which Chile should move in the coming years.
Octobrism was too relevant in Boric’s electoral victory and in the spirit of the failed constitution of the Convention for all voters and leaders to have abandoned the refounding maelstrom from one minute to the next to join a routine administration of Pinochet’s legacy (as they used to repeat) or the Concertación. Many other voters and public figures, on the contrary, are convinced that the thirty years were good in general, that it is possible to make other transformations, but that for this to happen, majorities are required – and eventually agreements – and not just voluntarism.
There are still three years left for the government of President Gabriel Boric, which has already undergone many ministerial modifications and attempts to resume the agenda. In any case, It is necessary for the government to understand that the changes of ministers are not enough to correct design errors or appointments by the government, but that a democratic rectification and a reorientation of priorities is also necessary.
This year there could be a new constitution in Chile, depending on the work that is done and what the citizens decide. Although there was a difficult first year and negative in many aspects, in recent weeks President Boric has risen in the polls and this could translate into a change in expectations for the constituent elections on May 7. After all, there will be a measurement there, and every government – good, regular or bad – also requires an opposition, with its own merits and limitations.
