Ten years after the death of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda has lost a lot of its importance.
The group can no longer be compared with the terror network that carried out the attacks of September 11, 2001 20 years ago and thus provoked the invasion of US troops in Afghanistan.
Al-Qaeda is only “a shadow of itself,” says terrorism expert Barak Mendelsohn from Haverford College in Pennsylvania.
Al-Qaeda has been led by Aiman al-Zawahiri since bin Laden was killed by US special forces in Pakistan on May 2, 2011. The uncharismatic Egyptian, who was previously considered the ideologue of the group, has not made a big impact since then.
It is believed to be in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. There are even rumors that al-Zawahiri has long since died.
There are numerous offshoots of Al Qaeda around the world
Al-Zawahiri’s greatest success is to have “kept al-Qaeda alive” at all, says Mendelsohn. There are numerous offshoots around the world that bear the group’s name – for example in North Africa, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria or Iraq.
In Mendelsohn’s view, however, Al-Qaeda’s top management has long ceased to be a powerful control center that makes decisions for all of its offshoots. It is more of a “staff of advisors” for jihadists around the world.
“Under Zawahiri’s leadership, al-Qaeda has become increasingly decentralized,” says a report by the US Institute Counter Extremism Project (CEP). According to the CEP experts, the decision-making power lies mainly in the hands of the leaders of the numerous offshoots.
According to the experts, al-Zawahiri played an important role in this restructuring of Al Qaeda into a kind of franchise company. At the end of 2020 there were again unconfirmed reports of his death. Accordingly, the al-Qaeda boss succumbed to a heart condition.
He later appeared in a video in which he spoke about the plight of the Muslim Rohingya minority in Myanmar. However, the video could not be precisely dated.
Israeli intelligence agents killed Al-Qaeda’s deputy in Tehran
In November, the death of his deputy Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, also known as Mohammed al-Masri, became known. The al-Qaeda deputy is said to have been killed by Israeli intelligence agents in Tehran in August.
But even if al-Zawahiri himself should still be alive: He is an old and probably sick man who does not have the charisma and attraction of his predecessor Bin Laden.
The US has put a bounty of 25 million dollars (a good 20 million euros) on al-Zawahiri and put him at the top of their list of the most wanted terrorists. Experts believe, however, that the US government does not consider him to be an all-too-great danger and is not making any major efforts to bring him down.
Washington’s lack of interest is of course also related to the rise of the Islamist terrorist organization “Islamic State” (IS). Instead of teaming up with al-Qaeda, the two groups are engaged in fierce competition in a number of countries.
Network has proven to be “extremely resilient”
The IS, which controlled a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria at the height of its power, has long outstripped al-Qaeda as a radical voice in online networks, including in the media.
However, other experts warn against writing off al-Qaeda completely in view of its loss of importance. Colin Clarke from the Soufan Center in the USA differentiates between al-Qaeda as an organization and as part of the Islamist movement. It is true that the top management around al-Zawahiri seems like a “relic from a bygone era”.
The network has proven to be “extremely resilient,” says Clarke. It is therefore still too early to “write the obituary for the group now”.
The doctor who found Osama bin Laden
In the United States he is considered a hero, in his home country Pakistan a traitor: the doctor Shakeel Afridi, who helped the CIA track down Osama bin Laden. Ten years after the al Qaeda chief was killed, Afridi is still in solitary confinement.
“He is only in prison to teach all Pakistanis a lesson not to cooperate with a Western secret service,” says Husain Haqqani, the Pakistani ambassador to Washington at the time. “Instead of clearing up Bin Laden’s stay in Pakistan, the authorities scapegoated Doctor Afridi.”
Afridi provided the US secret service with evidence that bin Laden was actually in the alleged house in the city of Abbottabad. The doctor started a vaccination program and got a DNA sample from the hiding place.
The consequences for the physician were dramatic
How crucial Afridi actually was in identifying the al-Qaeda chief is unclear. However, the consequences for the doctor were dramatic: A few weeks after the fatal attack by the Navy Seals special unit on May 2, 2011, Afridi was arrested.
He was never found guilty of storming the hideout, but was sentenced to 33 years imprisonment by a tribal court under a questionable colonial law for allegedly providing money to an insurgent group. The US government repeatedly advocated Afridi’s release and wanted to negotiate an exchange of prisoners – unsuccessfully.
Prison cell five square meters
Afridi’s cell in Sahiwal Prison in Punjab Province is tiny, five square meters, as reported by his family and lawyer – the only ones with whom he is allowed to have contact. In it he walk up and down and do push-ups to move. The only reading is the Koran, other books or newspapers are forbidden.
Relatives can visit him twice a month, but are separated by an iron bar and are not allowed to speak in their native Pashto language. “We are also not allowed to discuss politics or talk about the situation in prison,” says Afridi’s brother.
“To be very clear: Afridi paid the highest price,” says Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the US research institute Wilson Center in Washington. “He became a whipping boy.”
But that could change. “The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the deterioration in relations with Pakistan that it could bring suggest that Afridi will no longer be the hot topic it was in the past,” said Kugelman.
Few in Pakistan feel sorry for Afridi
Few in Pakistan feel sorry for Afridi. “If someone works for a foreign secret service, it is an unforgivable crime,” says Asad Durrani, the former head of the Pakistani espionage agency. Presumably, the arrest even saved the doctor from lynching.
The distrust that Afridi’s cooperation with the CIA has fueled in Pakistan is still felt today. The vaccination campaign trick has resulted in families refusing to have their children vaccinated against polio, for example. Insurgents attacked vaccination teams and dozens of health workers have been shot dead in the past ten years. (afd)
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