We are on the threshold of the premiere of the latest line of iPhones, and the atmosphere around the “It’s Glowtime” event is getting thicker with every hour. I can’t help but feel that the giant from Cupertino is preparing something special for us again. But is it really?
According to renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is preparing for a real shopping storm, planning to ship up to 17 million devices during the pre-sale period. That’s an impressive number, and it’s a sign of the company’s huge expectations. But what’s behind the numbers?
First of all, it is worth paying attention to the distribution of demand between the individual variants. It is not surprising that these versions Pro are set to be the stars of the show. The iPhone 16 Pro Max could account for as much as 38% of all orders, with the Pro model accounting for another 30%. This shows that buyers are willing to dig deeper into their pockets for the latest technology. On the other hand, the fate of the iPhone 16 Plus seems sealed – a mere 6% share of sales suggests that this variant may not appeal to users.
Loan already taken? 😉
But will these optimistic forecasts hold up in the long term? Here’s where the first snag comes in. Kuo predicts that sales could drop 7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. And that’s just the beginning of the potential problems.
Apple will face a real challenge in the first quarter of 2025. The projected 55% drop in demand compared to the previous quarter sounds alarming. What could be the reason for such a drastic drop? Is it just the seasonality of the market, or is the company shooting itself in the foot by introducing the cheaper iPhone SE 4?
Is the California corporation not falling into the trap of its own success? On the one hand, the pursuit of innovation and offering newer and newer technologies in “Pro” models is understandable. On the other hand, does it not lead to cannibalization of its own products?
People are increasingly wondering about the wisdom of replacing their smartphones every year, is Apple’s strategy still adequate? Maybe that’s why analysts, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, don’t believe in a supercycle for the iPhone 16 series, pinning their hopes only on the iPhone 17 line?
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I see a fascinating paradox here. Apple, the company that revolutionized the smartphone market, now has to find a balance between innovation and stability, between premium and affordability. This is a challenge in a market where competition never sleeps and customer expectations are constantly growing.
The coming months will be crucial for the future of the iPhone. Will Apple be able to maintain its leadership position, or will it have to reevaluate its strategy?
What do you think about the future of this iconic device? Are you planning to buy a new model or are you waiting for something more? Share your thoughts in the comments!
