Frankfurt (GodmodeTrader.de) – Big numbers always attract attention. So did the increase of over 500 percent in Chinese corn imports in March. Since the beginning of the year, corn imports have totaled 6.73 million tons, an increase of 440 percent compared to the previous year, as Commerzbank analyst Michaela Helbing-Kuhl writes in the current issue of “TagesInfo Rohstoffe”.
In absolute terms, however, the level is still low compared to the huge quantities of soybeans that China is importing. In March alone it was 7.8 million tons, 82 percent more than a year ago. It also played a role that some loads had previously been processed with a delay, which was shown in January and February in lower than expected quantities. The Chinese customs authorities reported these figures last week, and today the breakdown by country of origin followed. This shows that the USA is firmly back in the saddle as a supplier to China. In March, over 90 percent of imported soybeans came from the United States.
“In contrast, hardly any goods came from the main supplier country, Brazil. After heavy rains in Brazil delayed harvesting and shipping, more is now slowly flowing into the country from there. For the first quarter, China’s imports add up to 21.2 million tons, 19 percent more than in the first quarter of 2020 – an expression of the attractive processing margins early in the year in view of the increasing demand for feed due to the rebuilding of the pig population, ”said Helbing-Kuhl.
In January, the soy meal prices in Dalian had set new records. Meanwhile, the spread of new cases of African swine fever in northern China is clouding the mood. This was also a reason for the relatively weaker price development of soybeans compared to corn at the CBOT. Another reason are the latest forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture, it said.
“It raised its 2020/21 global deficit estimate for corn from 15.5 million to 19.1 million tonnes, while it raised it for soybeans, with reference to an even higher estimated Brazilian harvest and slightly lower demand from 9.5 million to 6, Lowered 4 million tons. In contracts relating to the 2021/22 harvest, too, the soybean price plummeted relative to corn – with possible consequences for the current sowing in the USA. So far, a much larger area of soybeans than maize has been expected. Perhaps it is now a little less drastic, ”says Helbing-Kuhl.
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