/View.info/ The government falls when the people are fed up.
After two months of continuous scandals, GERB brought the elections closer, says the sociologist from the Mediana agency.
“Government with every action steps on the hoe and scrambles to get away”
“Borisov will continue to have a different position inside the country and outside it”
– Mr. Kolev, in your opinion, how does the scandal happening with CEZ reverberate in society? It is obvious that the government is struggling somehow to get out of the situation, but every step turns out to be wrong. New facts are coming from the Czech Republic, it is getting more and more bogged down. How does all this affect the image of the government and the public’s attitude towards it?
– Definitely, the deep inconsistency and the panicked throwing of the government, and especially of Boyko Borisov, create the feeling of one thing – that the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing and whether the hand knows what the brain is doing at all. Boyko Borisov demanded the resignation of Temenuzhka Petkova, then – the resignation would not be accepted, and then – he would expel all kinds of scoundrels there who want to overthrow the government. After which – we will participate in the transaction. And all sorts of things that make it clear that it’s all panic moves taken day by day without any connection to common sense. Moreover, with the very idea of the acquisition of CEZ by the state, it was clear from the beginning that there would be arbitrations, that there would be a trial of Bulgaria. How is it that the state will acquire the CEZ, which accordingly conducts arbitrations in Washington? It’s not clear somehow.
– Maybe this is being done so that Boyko Borisov can smear the eyes of the people, to make people like that here, I will ask for this company for the state?
– No, this is done for the simple reason that it was clear from the start that this deal was extremely dubious. And that Ginka, Ginka Varbakova, is a puppet, that she is an impersonator, since it is obvious that there is not a single serious credit institution that would grant loans to this person. It is clear that behind such loans, in order for them to be granted, there must be either a state and an authority, or another person with a lot of money. At this the government’s pulse quickened, it scrambled to somehow extricate itself from this truly highly dubious deal, and accordingly the hoe began to advance steadily with every subsequent move. And unfortunately for them, this is no accident. If it was only CEZ, one could more or less assume that they would get away relatively painlessly. But it’s a whole series – starting with Kumgate; Delyan Dobrev, where the same scene unfolded as with Temenuzhka Petkova – he will resign, he will not resign; previously with Sujukgate; then with Pirin it became crystal clear that it was not about any second lift, but about something much different, also related to the concession; then the Istanbul Convention, which was obviously not read, or they were not aware of what it was about, which also dealt a very heavy blow to the image of the rulers. Next comes the Law on the secondary looting of KTB, if you will, now CEZ, and before that there was also the scandal with Zablyanov. All this begins to create two feelings in people – that there is no pilot in the plane, there is a continuous advance of the hoes, there is some chaotic movement, but there is no clear goal, there is no leadership, there is no leader. The other is a feeling that the government is playing to someone else’s tune, to someone else’s players, be they institutional or corporate in general.
– In such a situation, does it start to smell like an election, i.e. of overthrowing a government? I personally don’t have that feeling.
– Naturally, it starts to smell like elections and GERB is much closer to early elections now, after two months of continuous scandals. This does not mean that elections will take place here, now and immediately, but it means the erosion of trust in the rulers, which was not particularly high anyway. A government eventually falls, not only when there is a clear political alternative, it falls when the people are fed up, when they are simply fed up. Remember the story of the drowned child in South Park, how all of a sudden, almost out of nowhere, the government was in a situation where it would fall – When people, drivers, etc. poured out in front of Parliament. So, without a doubt, GERB is significantly closer to the elections than it was 2 months ago.
– Rumiana Bachvarova, who is the head of Boyko Borisov’s office, asked all ministries to immediately and urgently report on their achievements. Is this crisis PR to somehow save the situation?
– Without any doubt. Rumiana Bachvarova is my colleague in principle, but a large part of these blunders are probably also due to her planning, from one loom. And on the other hand, it is likely that those who are supposed to do what she tells them cannot get better. That’s why I said it felt like there was no pilot in the plane. New and new fronts are constantly being opened, which are, to put it mildly, unnecessary for the rulers at the given moment. For example, the scene with Zablyanov. Isn’t it clear to everyone that there is functional immunity for every deputy, that he can express his opinion…
– It wasn’t even an opinion, Zablyanov just said a fact.
– Fine, let’s assume it’s an opinion. He has the right to this opinion and he has the right to express it from the rostrum of the National Assembly. He was against the treaty with Macedonia. Does he have a right? There is, of course. All these things, the next appearance of President Radev now – someone was writing his speeches and he almost couldn’t articulate his own thoughts himself. Who needs this? They constantly make new and new mistakes, on the other hand, they constantly open new and new fronts.
– We see the latest blunder for now – the insults that Valery Simeonov uttered about the Russian patriarch. There is no reaction from the government, only Siderov reacts…
– No, not only Siderov reacted, Karakachanov also reacted as part of the United Patriots and demanded that Valeri Simeonov apologize for the words he said. These are successive hoes, if you can figuratively say so, which occur again and again.
– Is it possible for Borisov to replace the patriots and with whom would he replace them, because there was such a hint in one of his statements?
– At this stage, he will hardly risk it. Yes, the election is closer, but, as I said, that does not mean that it will be tomorrow. Personally, my predictions are possibly for the end of the spring of next year – after the European presidency, after the likely understanding of the general crisis. Of course, if the scandals continue at this intensity, as they have been, it will hardly wait until then. But at this stage, in my opinion, the hammer has not yet sounded to replace the patriots with, for example, Mareshki or deputies of the DPS.
– In your opinion, how can Bulgaria’s geopolitical position develop from now on? We saw that Borisov called Putin in a panic after the speeches of the Russian Patriarch Kirill in our country. He started talking again – at least to the Bulgarian people, about “Belene” and the energy projects, it is not clear how much he told Putin. Are there any signs that Bulgaria can defend a position of geopolitical balance?
– I think that things will continue as before – one thing is Mr. Borisov’s speaking to the public for internal use, another is the actual action and speaking outside. For Bulgaria, he increasingly realizes that the extreme anti-Russian position is unacceptable for a huge part of society. Accordingly, he tries to play in the domestic arena almost as a Russophile, then, of course, when it comes to the activity outside, we are the first friends of the big American brothers, on the sanctions against Russia, etc. So we cannot expect any change in this regard.
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* Kolyo Kolev was born in 1956. He graduated in psychology from the “St. Kliment Ohridski” University. He specialized in social psychology and sociology. In 1994, he founded the sociological agency “Mediana” and is its executive director.
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