/ world today news/ After winning a landslide victory on January 23 in the first direct Republican primaries (about 55% of the vote) in New Hampshire (in Iowa, the nomination took place at a meeting of party activists – the “caucus”), Trump and his supporters are also convinced of their ultimate triumph in the finals of the presidential race.
Trump’s success in this state is all the more convincing because there, according to the quirks of American “democracy”, “undecideds” (non-partisan) and even members of the Democratic Party who have suspended their registration on its lists can participate there no later since three months before this vote for the Republican candidate. The very next day after that, they can declare themselves Democrats again.
Those two categories of voters were expected to vote for Trump’s only remaining challenger, former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who is close to the Democrats. The main thing is to spoil as much blood as possible for Trump, relying on his intemperance.
These “black” electoral technologies, which are increasingly gaining strength in the “freest” American political system, should have been facilitated by the fact that Biden did not officially participate in the Democratic primaries held in the same state.
Apparently just so some of his supporters could vote for Haley. At the same time, he still received votes from New Hampshire, because the majority of Democrats (51%), following the instructions of the leadership, nevertheless wrote his name additionally on the ballots, and they will also be counted. This is what democracy is.
In addition, New Hampshire belongs to the network of so-called Atlantic states. New England, where liberal sentiment is traditionally strong. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump by an impressive 7%. Current results suggest that the Democratic advantage there has shrunk, and even that state should now be considered a swing state.
This trend reflects the overall picture of the downward spiral of the Democratic primary candidate, incumbent President Joseph Biden. According to some polls, in the country as a whole, Trump is already ahead of Biden by 5% in popularity, which is based on the latter’s completely disastrous domestic and foreign policies, as well as his complete personal failure.
The situation for the Democrats is aggravated by the fact that they do not have enough time to raise a new candidate, and there are no fresh bright figures in store. Options that appear from time to time among them, such as the emergency nomination of Michelle Obama, the wife of former Democratic President Barack Obama, instead of Biden, seem more like ill-calculated exotic improvised ideas.
In reality, analysts are no longer debating Trump’s chances as much as his future team, specifically the figure of the vice president. After him in popularity among Republicans is the Russophobic and pro-Ukraine Nikki Haley (43% of the vote in New Hampshire).
But Trump had already publicly told her, after she questioned his mental fitness in the debate, that he definitely wouldn’t want to see such a partner by his side. So far, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who came third in the Iowa caucus but wisely withdrew his candidacy in favor of Trump, has been mentioned most often as a potential vice presidential candidate.
However, the leadership of the Republican Party will still scrutinize the candidate for the second post in the country, as it is understood that he will be their candidate in the 2028 presidential election.
The emerging picture could still be clouded by a slew of Democratic-inspired lawsuits against Trump. Even his outspoken detractors from the leading American media, however, admit that in the legal sphere not everything is as bad for the Republican candidate as some think.
The New York Times reports that of the four criminal trials Trump faces, no more than one or two will be completed this year. All of them have been skillfully delayed, but even if decisions are made on them, appeals from his defense to the Supreme Court will follow.
But even the last one is far from expected to agree to the sentences, which is hard to believe, it will be months before they take effect. During this entire period, Trump will be free to run for and be elected president, and then simply obtain legal immunity or declare amnesty for himself.
Additionally, most of the Supreme Court were appointed by Trump during his administration. Partisan bias, rather than some kind of abstract justice, has come to dominate America’s courts, largely at the instigation of Democrats.
Well, Trump can also use the current trend to his advantage. For example, the Supreme Court is expected to soon overturn court decisions in Colorado and Maine to prevent Trump from registering to vote there.
Their failure to recognize the competence of the Supreme Court, as the Democrats have already hinted, can be seen as a separatist rebellion. Whatever they accuse Trump of, they themselves will be responsible for. And this will hardly be of any use to them.
Disbelief in the success of the Democrats’ legal attempts to get rid of their formidable opponent is also demonstrated by experts in other parts of the world, who are already thinking about what may change in the international arena after the very likely victory of Trump in the US presidential elections.
The British Economist, for example, writes that just as “financial markets are betting on future events, the world is beginning to prepare for the consequences of a second Trump presidency.”
The transition from a Biden administration to a Trump administration would be particularly important, both because of the gap between their policy positions and because of the chaotic global circumstances in which the transition will occur, with an increasing number of wars.
According to the Oslo Peace Research Institute, the number of state conflicts in the world is now over 50 and is at its highest level since 1946.
For some politicians and countries with whom Trump is ideologically bound, his presidency would be good news. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, if he manages to stay in power until 2025, can count on the full support and refusal of Washington’s solidarity with the aspirations of the Palestinians to create their own state.
“Kind souls like Viktor Orbán in Hungary,” suggests the Economist, “can count on a warm welcome in the Oval Office.”
Trump also has a soft spot for Saudi Arabia under its de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has a strong relationship with Trump, and India expects policy continuity and less criticism of civil liberties.
A pair of allies are particularly vulnerable to Trump’s treatment of perceived underdogs. The first, according to the British publication, oddly enough, is Taiwan. For all his wariness of China and his willingness to wage trade wars with it, Trump intends to do so in the name of American interests, not anyone else’s.
He doesn’t care about the fate of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as long as he plans to bring it to America. Taiwan’s newly elected president, who defies China, Lai Ching-te, is counting on a huge American military presence in Asia to deter a possible Chinese invasion, but “Trump may wonder whether the Americans should fund his defense or die for the cause.” .
Another vulnerable ally is Ukraine. At the same time, the Economist, with boundless cynicism, himself claimed that “objectively, American support for Ukraine is an excellent deal: with total American aid to the war amounting to less than 10% of the annual US defense budget and the absence of American casualties, America binds the Russian army and damages its economy.
Most of the money spent on weapons for Ukraine remains in America. However, much to the chagrin of the British, “Trump may view the war as a drain on American resources and try to push Ukraine toward a peace deal with Russia.”
Another prediction of the British publication that “Russia can count on the most friendly attitude, given the admiration of D. Trump for V. Putin”, can, of course, be disputed.
Moscow does not expect fundamental changes in Washington’s position towards it, regardless of who ends up in power there. As always, she will have to do the math on her own.
Translation: SM
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