After the scar is healed, remember the pain

Sunday, December 10 is the District Council polling day. Recently, the Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs, Mak Mei-kuen, posted a series of posts on her Facebook page, exposing the chaos she encountered when participating in the District Council election in 2019, which is thought-provoking.

1. Destroy the office

Mai Meijuan disclosed some CCTV videos of the regional office that had not been exposed back then. On the night she announced her candidacy, her Tsing Yi office was attacked by thugs. A group of black-clad and masked thugs broke the roller shutters and glass doors of the office and poured into the office. As seen in the CCTV video, they were destroying equipment in the office everywhere. In the video, you can clearly hear them saying “grab files, grab files.” It can be seen that in addition to destroying, they also stole confidential information of candidates. Mai Meijuan said that what saddens her the most is seeing adults taking children to join in sabotage. It is hard to imagine how much impact it has on the growth of these children.

She was not the only one to experience these experiences, but all candidates who opposed black violence had faced them. Unfortunately, the social dangers and injustices at that time did not receive public attention.

2. Threatening volunteers

Mai Meijuan revealed that she has served in the district for 30 years. What makes her most proud is that she has a large and enthusiastic team of volunteers who have been silently supporting her in the district. Some volunteers have been helping her since she graduated from college. She also watched the volunteers Children grow up.

But by the time of the 2019 District Council elections, the situation was extremely chaotic. Volunteers were criticized more and more frequently. In addition, some thugs not only targeted pro-establishment figures online, but also gradually stopped even volunteers, claiming that ” Disaster will surely affect the family.” His behavior was extremely shameless. As the situation got out of control, Mai Meijuan was extremely worried about the personal safety of the volunteers. She and the volunteers were threatened with knives when they were visiting their homes, and someone threw ice cubes at their street station from a high place in an attempt to attack the volunteers. After the block melts away, no evidence is left. Later, some thugs claimed on Telegram that they would throw petrol bombs at their street station.

She and her volunteers withstood the pressure and continued to campaign, conducting a veritable “campaign”. In order to prepare for possible attacks, they distribute stab-proof clothing and other equipment to volunteers, and they are also required to bring mini fire extinguishers when visiting homes. All volunteers must stay out of the camera or have to pass a check before going out on the street. The entire volunteer team fell into a deep fear that cannot be described in words.

3. Intimidation of Candidates

As a candidate, Mai Meijuan was naturally subjected to online trolling and death threats. When she was campaigning, a friend and her husband spontaneously patrolled near the street station to keep an eye on the situation for her. The common people had no weapons to defend themselves, so they ended up holding a bag of pomelo as a self-defense weapon. They hoped to use this bag of pomelo as a weapon to protect her if someone attacked. Mai Meijuan described the whole incident as absurd but helpless, which also reflected the bad situation at the time.

4. Surround the polling station

Mai Meijuan shared what she was like at the polling station on the night of the election on November 24, 2019. At that time, many members of the establishment knew that the number of winning votes was slim and they were disheartened. In addition, the polling stations were surrounded by gangster supporters, so few people stayed at the polling stations to watch the votes being counted. However, Mai Meijuan believed that we must persevere until the end. So stay at the polls. After counting for three hours, the polling station was surrounded by a large number of people in black, who kept shouting and provoking her and her volunteers. I remember that when there were questionable votes that needed to be checked, I finally waited for the polling director to make a decision. However, the polling station was surrounded by a large number of black mobs. The polling director was extremely nervous and did not dare to make a decision for a long time. Later, Mai Meijuan said, “Forget it, it all belongs to the opponent, and these votes don’t have to be awarded to me.” The polling director was relieved.

When Mai Meijuan and her volunteers were about to leave after the vote counting was completed, the men in black surrounding the polling station immediately rushed to stop her. In order to protect her, her volunteer friends fought with the men in black, and it turned into a melee. Meijuan was lucky to be able to evacuate safely.

A friend asked me why I have to vote now that the world is at peace and the candidates for district councils are all patriotic and Hong Kong people. I said I don’t want to heal the scars and forget the pain. In order to fulfill my civic responsibilities and to support the improvement of district governance, In parliamentary elections, everyone should come out to vote on Sunday. Remember, it is a “two-seat, single-vote system”. You can only choose one candidate, cast one vote and check the other.

Lu Yongxiong

Last day, we talked about Hong Kong facing the sharp rise in the US dollar and US interest rates. Hong Kong is suffering from a “financial crisis level” impact. One of the packages is to lower the ratings of financial institutions. Rating agency Moody’s announced that it had lowered the rating outlook for Hong Kong and Macau from “stable” to “negative”.

Moody’s also lowered China’s rating outlook the day before. The downgrade of the rating outlook was a prelude to the downgrade.

Recall that rating agencies are rarely able to issue effective warnings before a real crisis occurs. Instead, they add insult to injury after a financial crisis breaks out. For example, after the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, rating agencies suddenly lowered the sovereign ratings of many places, including Hong Kong, in order to save their reputation, which had the effect of adding insult to injury.

However, Moody’s downgrade of Hong Kong’s rating outlook this time is not a sign of brilliant foresight, but rather a very suspicious motive.

First, why did Hong Kong and Macau lower their rating outlooks at the same time?

Moody’s said that the downgrade of Hong Kong’s rating reflects the assessment of Hong Kong’s close political, institutional, economic and financial ties with mainland China. Moody’s said that after the implementation of the “Hong Kong National Security Law” and the modification of the electoral system in 2020, it is expected that Hong Kong’s political , institutional and economic decision-making autonomy will be further gradually weakened, while the weakening trend in mainland China will affect the Hong Kong economy and weaken the SAR government’s fiscal buffer capacity.

The flaw in Moody’s rationale for lowering Hong Kong’s rating is that it also lowered Macau’s rating. The reasons for downgrading Macau’s rating outlook are similar. However, the problem is that Hong Kong has improved its political system in recent years, but Macau’s political system has not changed. In addition, Macau’s reserves are abundant. As of July this year, Macau’s fiscal reserves reached 569 billion patacas, equivalent to Expenditure nearly 6 times the budget. The rationale for lowering the rating outlooks for mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau at the same time is not sufficient.

It came under pressure after the second downgrade of the U.S. rating outlook.

In fact, rating is a business, mainly monopolized by the three major rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. The three have occupied 90% of the market. They mainly make money by charging grading fees for various bonds. However, the power to accredit rating agencies comes entirely from the U.S. financial regulatory agencies. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission introduced the concept of nationally recognized statistical rating organizations in 1975, identifying institutions that can provide effective ratings. Therefore, whether rating companies are independent of the U.S. government Control, questionable.

Among the three major rating companies, Fitch is smaller and more prominent. In August this year, it downgraded the long-term foreign debt rating of the United States from AAA to AA+. This was the first time since Fitch first released the U.S. credit rating in 1994. downgrade the United States. It is mainly aimed at the long-term harm of the serious fiscal deficit in the United States.

After Fitch downgraded the United States, it put a lot of pressure on other rating agencies. As a result, Moody’s waited until November and finally changed the rating outlook of the United States from “stable” to “negative.” The reason is that the U.S. fiscal deficit is huge and its debt affordability has declined. After Moody’s lowered the rating outlook of the United States, U.S. government officials expressed strong opposition, believing that the U.S. economy is still strong and U.S. Treasury bonds are the safest and most liquid assets in the world, and there is no reason to lower the rating outlook of the United States.

The U.S. government has an annual fiscal deficit of US$2 trillion and a trade deficit of US$1 trillion. Especially after the epidemic, the fiscal deficit has expanded rapidly. It is only reasonable to directly lower its rating. Moody’s only lowering the rating outlook is already holding back. But I believe we still face a lot of pressure. Now that China has been dragged into the water, the rating outlook of mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau has been lowered at once, which I believe can slightly reduce the pressure on them from the US government.

The problems with the U.S. rating agencies were exposed as early as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. It was later revealed that there was collusion between rating agency personnel and banks, knowing that the highest-rated AAA-rated bonds only needed 90% to be AAA-rated. As a result, they specifically bundled junk-rated subprime mortgages with 90% of AAA-rated bonds and turned them into a brand-new AAA-rated product. This objectively gave the inferior subprime mortgages a huge securitization outlet and gave banks a huge opportunity to securitize them. A large number of loans are then resold to securities mortgage companies, which are then packaged into AAA-rated securities and sold. The investigative subcommittee established by the U.S. Senate later to review the subprime crisis made it clear that inaccurate AAA credit ratings brought risks to the U.S. financial system and became a key reason for the financial crisis.

Understanding the money-making motives of these international rating agencies and their complicated relationship with the U.S. government, we know that lowering Hong Kong’s rating outlook, or even directly lowering Hong Kong’s rating, involves a lot of politics.

Lu Yongxiong