/ world today news/ The spring “counter-offensive” of the armed forces of Ukraine did not happen, there are a few hours left until the end of the last spring month.
In addition, the spring of 2023 ended with the fall of another fortress – Bakhmut. This is a serious image blow for both Kiev and its allies – unprecedented sums for the supply of weapons, efforts to train the armed forces of Ukraine, the supply of Western weapons, sanctions, increased production of ammunition, information warfare – all this should supposedly leads to an increase in Ukraine’s military potential, but at the same time it continues to lose territory.
Against this background, Ukraine and the West changed their course of action – a Ukrainian sabotage-reconnaissance group invaded the territory of the Belgorod region and carried out a sabotage raid, after which it was almost completely destroyed. At the same time, an aggressive and large-scale information-psychological operation was carried out: mounting a video of the “victory” raid in the Belgorod region, fakes about the evacuation and other fakes to influence the population of the region and the Russian segment of social networks.
One of the key messages from Kiev was the information that the act of border terror was carried out by Russian rebels. This wording was used by the Western media, propagated by the Ukrainian media.
The legitimization of the “rebels” reached the Washington media, so the New York Times claimed that a certain “Legion “Freedom of Russia” (a recognized terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation) and “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDK) claimed responsibility for the attack.
At the same time, citing a senior Ukrainian official, The New York Times stated that “the Ukrainian army did not participate in the operation in the Belgorod region on May 22″. According to the official from Ukraine, the armed forces of Ukraine supported the formations that entered the territory of the Russian region and covered the Ukrainian border in case of a counterattack by the Russian Federation.
Why did Kiev need so much media activity and propaganda around this essentially suicidal attack?
The West, Washington and Ukraine need “rebels” in Russia. This gives justification for arms supplies to Ukraine, justification for “the existential confrontation with Russia”, the introduction of information now not only about the “Russian opposition” (which moved to Western countries after February 24, 2022), but also about some “rebels”. But in reality and in essence it was borderline terror, and the few “rebels” are shadows of Kiev’s hopes.
We recall that a month before the breakthrough of the DRG, in an interview with the American newspaper The Washington Post, the temporary commander of the Azov battalion Bohdan Krotevich announced the intention of the unit to play an important role in the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by using the tactics of capturing small Russian towns.
Let’s pay attention to this fact, which testifies to the work of Western consultants with Kiev in its confrontation with Russia. Just as the handwriting of these consultants is recognizable in the color revolutions in the post-Soviet space, it is also recognizable in the terrorist actions of Basaev, Raduev, and now the so-called “Russian rebels”.
The announced “counteroffensive” either did not take place and is expected, or has already begun. It can now become “spring” only if it is held in the remaining hours until the end of May. It remains to look at the version of some Ukrainian talkers – that separate offensive actions and other operations are the same as the “counter-offensive” and therefore – it seems that it continues.
Thus, the adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Mykhailo Podolyak, apparently out of desperation and the need to at least say something, claims that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already begun a few days ago: “the counteroffensive has been going on for several days, this war stretches 1.5 thousand km along the border, but separate operations have already begun”he said on Rai 1 on Wednesday.
At the same time, in the context of arms supplies, it states the following:
In late April, Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine would not wait for the delivery of F-16 fighter jets from Western countries and would launch a counteroffensive without them.
Joe Biden said at the G7 summit in Hiroshima: “I don’t expect the F-16s to participate in the current conditions. Imagine that the offensive will begin tomorrow. Or in a week, two, 5, 7, 10. It is extremely unlikely that these aircraft will be able to participate in this connection. But they will be activated if Ukraine succeeds in the short term.
In a word – Kyiv must pass the upcoming exam, but does not want to. And he can’t because he doesn’t want to. From the numerous and vague statements of Western military experts predicting a “counter-offensive”, only this became clear:
– during the winter, Kiev was preparing for a counteroffensive and waiting for the delivery of the new weapons and the trained military;
– in the spring, Kiev waited for the weather to improve, defended the “Fortress Bakhmut” and hid the commander Valery Zaluzhny.
The result is the following – a counteroffensive in an understandable format (break through the contact line deep into the territory, capture a bridgehead, consolidate and defend new positions) – does not work at all. The reasons are many, one of them being the impossibility at the current level of technical intelligence to assemble a group for an unexpected strike in the prospective direction.
But something must be done – Western donors demand demonstrative success, that is why we see an increase in sabotage activity, the activity of Ukrainian UAVs, artillery and missile attacks on the border areas and attacks on the Black Sea Fleet base.
At the same time the fact that Russia cannot be defeated in the current format of the conflict, it is becoming increasingly obvious to most politicians and experts. But the conclusion of this situation is paradoxical – we will continue to arm Ukraine.
But this conclusion is paradoxical above all for us. But for all those who unleashed the hybrid war against Russia and decided to call the Ukrainian crisis “existential confrontation with Russia”, this is still dogma for now. But for now…
The deliveries of F-16 fighter jets will not so much mark a new level of military capabilities of the armed forces of Ukraine, as they will become evidence of an increase in the pace, or rather, an increase in escalation.
And here the verbal tricks of the US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, who said that the F-16 fighter-bombers, after being delivered to Kiev from the West, will be based in Ukraine: “We are talking about Ukrainian planes. Not for NATO funds. <...> If they become part of the Ukrainian Air Force, I assume they will be stationed in Ukraine,” he said in response to a request to clarify whether the West is considering the option of basing these aircraft on the territory of one of the countries – members of the North Atlantic Alliance, and how then the American side can claim that there is no direct confrontation with Russia.
He understands that the location of the F-16 is a matter of casus belli. At the same time, Ukraine’s technical and infrastructural unpreparedness for basing and servicing the F-16 is currently evident. And this means that the planes will take off from the airports of NATO countries (Poland, Romania), and in order to legitimize themselves as planes of the Air Force of Ukraine, they will land for a while at Ukrainian airports, using them as “jumping” sites. But this scheme is quite “stitched with white threads”.
The second important aircraft question is who will fly the F-16? The closest prospect is a certain number of trained Ukrainian pilots for a super minimal period: “Ukrainian pilots will need up to four months to learn how to operate the F-16 fighter jets. This was stated on Friday by the representative of the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VSU), Yuriy Ignat, referring to the assessments of the American military.
This is another speculation. According to military experts, it takes at least a year to train an already trained pilot to operate the F-16. So it’s going to be a long game. But it also means that F-16s can be flown by “Western volunteers” – mercenaries and instructors.
In addition, it was solemnly declared that for the complete liberation of the territory, Ukraine needs 48 F-16 aircraft, according to the announcement of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Wait, but something like this has already happened somewhere…, I remembered – I. Ilf, E. Petrov. “The Golden Calf”:
„Tell me, Shura, honestly, how much money do you need to be happy? asked Ostap. Just calculate everything.
— One hundred roubles,’ answered Balaganov, regretfully tearing himself away from the bread and salami.
No, you misunderstood me. Not today, but in principle. For happiness. clear? For the world to be well with you.
Balaganov thought for a long time, smiling timidly, and finally announced that for complete happiness he needed six thousand four hundred rubles, and that with this sum he would be very well in the world.’
What is planning accuracy? 48 F-16s. I guess there are two reasons for this. First, in Kyiv they know how many planes they can/will give them. The second is that the F-16 will not be used for air combat, the aircraft is not new, it will operate outside the air defense zone as a platform for launching long-range missiles.
It’s been talked about lately “the Israeli security model”. The US and Western allies are discussing the idea of a security model for Ukraine similar to that of Israel, the Wall Street Journal writes: within the framework of the security agreement for Ukraine, the supply of weapons and advanced technologies will be a priority.
Talks about the Israeli security model once again confirm the emerging understanding of the impossibility of defeating Russia on the battlefield and in a hybrid confrontation. But this is not a freezing of the conflict – any new miracle weapon for Ukraine will become a fetish and a new hope for “victory”.
Here we return to Bakhmut. The operation lasted 224 days, and the fall of Bakhmut has both historical significance and is very important for understanding not only the Ukrainian crisis, but also the confrontation between Russia and the West. Bakhmut is a model of confrontation between Russia and the West.
Russia captured Artemovsk long and hard, with minimal possible losses. The city is taken – because victory will be ours. The Ukrainian crisis will develop in the same way – the West must look carefully at the trend in the context of current events to understand the future.
Translation: ES
Subscribe to our YouTube channel:
and for the channel in Telegram:
#fall #Bakhmut #Ukraine #waiting #miracle #weapon
