/ world today news/ At the time when this material was being prepared, the counting of votes in the May 14 parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey had not yet officially ended. Only the data from the parliamentary elections are known.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Republican Alliance, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK party), defended its majority. With 49.3% in the 600-seat parliament, its MPs will have approximately 322 seats. The main opposition bloc, the People’s Alliance, led by Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kalçdaroğlu, has 35% of the vote, which means 212 seats. The remaining mandates go to the Kurds and other opposition forces.
If Erdoğan wins the second round of the presidential election (he is currently literally tenths of a percent short of winning the first round), then the political situation in the country can remain stable and predictable. If opposition leader Kulçdaroglu wins the second round, he will get an opposition parliament, which could be a sign of a power crisis in Turkey.
And now, in a certain sense, a paradoxical situation is occurring: after winning the parliamentary elections, the political forces seem to be losing the president. This suggests that Kulçdroğlu “better lose the election” because the parliament will actually block his work in the future, which will destroy the political system that has developed in the country and create chaos. Therefore, the result of the second round cannot be considered predetermined, but Erdogan still looks like their favorite. For many reasons.
For 20 years of ruling the country, he created a powerful governing apparatus that will not give up its positions simply because the country’s administrative and information resources are under his control. Second, the third candidate in the election, Sinan Ogan, who won about 5% of the vote, is ideologically closer to Erdogan than to Kulçdaroğlu. MGIMO graduate Ogan is a Turkish nationalist and may support the current president.
Russia is closely monitoring the development of the situation in Turkey, it is important for it what will happen next. Erdogan and potentially Kulçdaroğlu are the type of Eastern politicians who tend to improvise and maneuver. Moscow makes no secret of its preference for the incumbent president, while the West supports Kaliçdaroğlu. But the technologies to hold power and get to it are two different things. Thus, Erdoğan is purposefully inciting strong anti-American sentiments in the country from above, but he is not going to break with the West. Kaluchdaroglu, who enjoys the support of Western leaders, behaves in the same way.
But it is unlikely that one of the parties will decide to organize a Turkish “Maidan” that may gather after the election due to rumors that “the election results were falsified”. Behind the scenes maneuvers are more likely.
But this is still just a guess. With a high degree of probability, it will be possible to talk about the development of events only after the results of the second round of the presidential elections.
Translation: ES
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