According to Wall Street’s optimistic voices, the group’s growing emphasis on the Czech market and consumer business could earn tens of percent within a year and a day, also thanks to the impending increase in the shares of some major shareholders.
“The success of the transaction may symbolize the gradual potential departure of PPF from China and the move to the domestic market. At the same time, the new entity can become the backbone of the group’s financial business, “says Cyrrus portfolio manager Tomáš Pfeiler. For Monety shares, the closing of the trade is said to even reduce the growth potential of the stock.
“In terms of our target price of 105 crowns, the deal is negative, shares will be issued at a relatively low price, the purchase of Airbank assets is relatively expensive. In the long run, it will depend on the degree of fulfillment of the announced synergies, ”adds J&T Bank analyst Milan Lávička.
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While the shares of solitary Moneta would, according to analysts, relatively quickly lower the one hundred crowns per piece, a more patient investor, on the other hand, can gain more by growing the business in the domestic banking market. According to Thomson Reuters statistics, Citi, for example, offered two recommendations at the end of November, depending on whether the transaction would take place or whether shareholders would reject it.
In the event that the merger did not pass, the bank recommended that investors only hold shares, ie not buy. According to Citi, however, shareholder green is expected to bring Moneta shares to the threshold of 130 crowns per share at the one-year horizon, which means an increase of almost 40% at the current price. Economists from other banks have similarly high expectations.
“In my opinion, most investment banks expected the merger to take place,” Pfeiler said. During November, also with regard to the bank’s better profitable outlook, the British HSBC also significantly increased the expected price of Moneta’s shares, from 95 to 112 crowns, which represents a promise of a roughly one-fifth yield.
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Komerční banka’s price vision also lies at the threshold of 110 crowns. Businessman Pavel Tykač, whose environmental activists blame the growing connection between Moneta and the billionaire’s coal business, also intends to increase his share in the bank by about six percent.
Currently, the PPF Group has a share of almost 30% in Moneta. Through the transaction, Moneta will acquire one hundred percent of the Air Bank Group’s shares from the PPF Group for a purchase price of CZK 25.90 billion. 80 percent will be financed from the money that Moneta will receive from its current shareholders for the subscription of 255.5 million newly issued shares, the remaining fifth of the transaction will be financed from the bank’s capital. The merger will create the third largest bank on the Czech market after Česká spořitelna and ČSOB, according to the number of clients.
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The merger was significantly helped by the December approval of two key acquisition advisors, Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services. Both advisers advised Moneta’s shareholders to raise their hand for a key point of the general meeting at which the business has so far failed, namely its financing. It is the opinions of these advisers that are important for the decision-making of many funds that own shares in Moneta, which often do not have enough information to make their own decisions.
In October, the bank pleased investors by raising its full-year outlook for this year. “Moneta released provisions in the third quarter, which allowed it to increase its full-year profit outlook. We evaluate the result report positively, “said Jan Tománek, an analyst at Fio banka
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