The corona pandemic is not over yet, but the situation is starting to improve. If nothing crazy happens in the next few months, the end is in sight. Furthermore, the notorious ‘black code’ in healthcare is far away for the moment. So says Susan van den Hof, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance at the RIVM.
Next Tuesday is the thousandth day of the corona crisis in the Netherlands. Almost three years ago, on February 27, 2020, a man from Loon op Zand in Brabant was told he had contracted the virus. The then Minister of Health Bruno Bruins announced that first confirmed infection on live television.
The virus spread quickly after that. A large part of the population will become infected, Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned a few weeks later. This has come true. The counter now stands at more than 8.5 million positive tests and nearly 23,000 recorded deaths. The real numbers are greater.
But in recent weeks, the corona virus has had considerable difficulty spreading. The number of positive tests is declining rapidly, while it is expected to increase in the fall. According to the RIVM, this is because people have developed protection and are less susceptible due to vaccinations, the summer and autumn surges and previous infections.
Situation this autumn very different compared to previous years
“The situation now is very different compared to the years before November. Two years ago nobody was vaccinated yet. Last year we did, but we had the more pathogenic delta variant. Now our starting situation is much better,” says Van den Hof.
He makes no predictions for next winter and after, but says that for almost a year we have only been dealing with different versions of the omikron variant of the virus in the Netherlands. “This offers some perspective, the previous variants lasted much less. If omikron stays, I’m quite optimistic. I’m also less afraid of the code black. If nothing strange happens this winter, we will probably have reached the end.”
“Corona will become a predictable seasonal disease”
The end of the pandemic does not mean the end of the corona virus, because the virus will not disappear, Van den Hof points out. People will continue to get infected, patients will continue to end up in hospitals and people will continue to die from the consequences in the future. “But then it becomes a predictable seasonal disease. Then we have a virus that we’ve learned to live with well. And we continue to vaccinate the high-risk groups, like we do with the flu shot.”
It is important for the Netherlands to prepare, because there could be a new pandemic in a few years, says Van den Hof. faster and better view of what is happening. Measuring virus particles in wastewater, for example. Maybe it will soon be possible, but if we need it again, we need to be able to scale up quickly.”
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