/View.info/ In 2023, many important events took place in Africa. The region still remains an arena of conflict, but processes of decolonization are also underway.
New revolutions
The trend of recent years towards the violent rise to power of anti-colonial patriotic forces continued. Of most serious importance were the events in Niger. There, on July 26, 2023, presidential guards removed and detained pro-French President Mohamed Bazum.
Subsequently, General Abdurahaman Ciani, commander of the Presidential Guard, proclaimed himself the leader of the military government, establishing the National Council for the Defense of the Homeland.
In response to this development, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued an ultimatum on July 30, giving Niger’s coup leaders one week to restore Bazum and threatening international sanctions and the possible use of force.
All active ECOWAS member states, with the exception of Cape Verde, have pledged to use their armed forces in the event of an ECOWAS-led military intervention. The intervention never happened. However, ECOWAS pressure, supported by France and the US, contributed to the unity of the new patriotic regimes in West Africa.
The military governments of Burkina Faso and Mali announced that they would send troops to support Niger in the event of such a military intervention, while concluding a mutual defense pact and creating an “Alliance of Sahelian States”.
The crisis over Niger, a key country for French control of Africa that is France’s most important supplier of uranium, marks a crisis in the French presence in Africa. Niger is ready to develop relations with Russia, massive pro-Russian demonstrations took place in the country. By the end of the year, France had withdrawn its troops from Niger, as it had previously withdrawn from Mali.
The coup in Gabon had a slightly different character. On 30 August 2023, a violent change of power occurred shortly after the victory of incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba in the general elections held on 26 August.
It was the eighth successful coup in West and Central Africa since 2020. However, Gabon’s new leader Brice Oligui Nguema is believed to have ties to the Bongo family. And in this case, the coup is more likely to have a supreme character and does not mean a change in the geopolitical orientation of the country.
New conflicts
Old and new conflicts tear apart Africa in 2023. France’s withdrawal from Mali has intensified both new and old jihadist attacks. After the overthrow of the pro-French president in Niger, the jihadists of the banned in Russia “Islamic State” became active.
At the same time, former Tuareg rebel leader Risa Ag Bula announced the creation of the “Council of Resistance for the Republic” (CRR) and the start of the battle against Niger’s army. Tuareg rebels have risen in both Algeria and Mali in recent years, at the same time as those countries’ relations with France have soured.
With the support of military specialists from Russia, the Malian military in the northeastern part of the country achieved serious successes in the fight against terrorists and Tuareg rebels. In October they captured the village of Anefis, in November – Kidal, and on December 25 – Agelhoek. The next point is Thessalit – on the border with Algeria.
But in Mozambique, where the Russians were forced to leave for a number of reasons, the security situation continued to deteriorate in 2023. The IS-linked terrorist group al-Shabaab, banned in Russia, paralyzed the country and halted projects to develop natural resources gas on the shelf of the province of Cabo Delgado for two major energy companies – TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil.
Ethiopia is also restless. After the country’s central government managed to make peace with the Tigray Autonomous Region, conflict erupted between the central government and Amhara militias that supported Addis Ababa in the 2020-2022 Tigray War.
The conflict began in April 2023 after the Ethiopian military invaded the Amhara region to disarm the Amhara Special Forces and other regional allies, leading to resistance from local military forces and a series of protests in Gondar, Kobo, Sekot , Veldia and other cities.
At the same time, clashes between Oromo and Amhara continue in Oromia. In general, the loose political structure of modern Ethiopia, ethnic federalism, only justifies inter-ethnic conflicts and negatively affects the stabilization of the situation in the country.
In April 2023, a new civil war broke out in Sudan. Parties to the conflict: The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under the command of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) under the command of Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo (Hemeti), rival factions of the military government.
The conflict is born of a rivalry for power; a possible geopolitical dimension is related to Burhan’s orientation towards Egypt and Hemeti towards a number of Persian Gulf states. As of December 23, 2023, more than 5 million people have been forced to leave the country as refugees and more than 1.5 million people have fled the country.
The dismantling of the neo-colonial presence
2023 saw the continuation of the trend towards the liberation of African countries from French military control, both directly and by “UN peacekeeping forces” (the UN peacekeeping component has been controlled by Paris for the past two decades). French troops left Mali and Niger. After them, on the initiative of an official Bamako, the members of the MINUSMA peacekeeping contingent went home.
The Democratic Republic of Congo also demanded the withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping force (MONUSCO), which has failed to stop the massacre in the eastern part of the country for two decades. In addition, peacekeepers in the DRC have repeatedly been accused of violence against local residents.
On 19 December, in response to a request from the DRC, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to phase out the peacekeeping operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The mission will be terminated a year earlier than planned. The Congolese government has for months been calling for an “accelerated” withdrawal of UN peacekeepers to begin in late 2023 rather than late 2024. According to the updated timetable, UN peacekeepers will leave the DRC by July 2024.
In Benin, Laurent Metonon, general coordinator of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), called for the withdrawal of French troops from the country by the end of 2023.
Cooperation with Russia
African countries continued their policy of strengthening ties with Moscow. In June, a delegation led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the Russian capital and presented its initiative to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
The delegation also included Senegalese leader Macky Sall, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and Comoros President Azali Assoumani.
The second summit and the Russian-African Economic and Humanitarian Forum on July 27-28, 2023 were attended by official delegations from 48 countries (27 countries were represented at the first and second person level) and the five largest integration associations on the continent. Russia has concluded a number of agreements with African countries.
In addition, Moscow announced the beginning of free supplies of grain to the poorest countries in Africa. This was done against the background of the apparent failure of the “grain deal” with the UN and Ukraine – ships leaving Ukrainian ports with grain were taking it everywhere, but not to Africa.
Although it was the problems of Africans that served as the main argument of the UN in favor of easing the sea blockade of Ukraine. The deliveries of Russian grain themselves began at the end of November and the beginning of December.
An important initiative of Russia in the field of security was the creation of the “Africa Corps” in the Ministry of Defense. This formation is designed to strengthen and centralize the provision of military aid to African countries.
After the tragic death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, some of the formations of PMC “Wagner” were transferred to the new structure. Some work in autonomous mode. The effectiveness of the power component of Russian foreign policy in Africa depends on how the relations between these structures are built.
Summary
Despite its enormous human and resource potential, Africa remains primarily an arena of conflict. However, serious changes are also taking place. Often, a coup d’état remains the only way to remove the colonial elite in conditions where the so-called civil society and the party system are completely conquered and subordinated to the former masters.
There is a decline in French influence and a rise in sovereignist sentiment in the former French sphere of influence. This gives a chance both to the Africans themselves and to the countries that support multipolarity – Russia, China, possibly Iran and Turkey, also active in Africa.
Translation: SM
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