/ world today news/ Exactly a year ago, the American army in Afghanistan, using the terminology of modern Ukraine, made a tactical retreat to more advantageous positions, but in fact simply fled ingloriously, leaving its supporters to the fate of fate. Power in the country passed entirely into the hands of the Taliban, who still have an unclear geopolitical status, while some countries quite actively interact with Kabul.
Recently, the Minister of Industry said in an interview that Afghanistan relies on the purchase of one million barrels of Russian oil, and natural gas is of no less interest. The extreme importance of this issue is underlined by Minister Azizi’s words that Afghanistan is ready to pay for energy supplies in any convenient form, including direct barter of goods.
Don’t smile sarcastically here. It is difficult to overstate the value of working with the new government in Kabul and ensuring robust security on our southern borders.
It is not for nothing that we started our conversation with the fact that Afghanistan has been left alone for a whole year. All this time, the pro-American coalition apparently did not notice the strength of the Taliban, and an invisible bubble of silence formed around the country.
However, it turned out to be loose, since already at the moment of their victorious entry into the capital, the Taliban immediately took under reliable protection the embassies of Russia and China. In fact, it is Moscow and Beijing that are currently engaged most actively with Afghanistan, exploring potential avenues of cooperation.
The very fact of turning to Moscow with such a request suggests that the Taliban, firstly, have completely mastered the levers of power, and secondly, their representatives intend to initiate reforms to take the country out of the Middle Ages. We’ll see how successful these plans are, but for now we can make a number of speculative guesses based on statistics, maps of power grids, and highway gas pipeline routes.
Let’s start with the basics. Afghanistan is a virtually bottomless and, most importantly, completely untapped market, making it a unique target in the age of globalization, when countries and transnational corporations are fighting for every cent of profit.
According to the latest (very approximate) figures, the population of Afghanistan is approaching 38 million. For comparison: the same number, according to official statistics, lives in Ukraine. At the same time, 70 percent of Afghans still do not have access to electricity, while the same figure for rural areas – that is, for most of the sparsely urbanized country – approaches 90 percent.
If we continue to hypothetically compare Afghanistan with the same Ukraine, the depth of the energy hole will be even more obvious.
In 2021, Ukrainian power plants with an installed capacity of 42.8 gigawatts generated 156.7 terawatt hours of energy. For the same period, the Afghans can boast of nothing but a paltry 600 megawatts of their own production and imports of 670 megawatts from Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Naturally, Ukraine has a very powerful (still Soviet) industry, for the needs of which the lion’s share of the electricity is spent, but the contrast is so striking that it allows to appreciate both the plight of the population and the extremely unclear prospects for industrialization.
Potentially, Uzbekistan, which is on the verge of building the first nuclear power plant in its history, can become a key supplier of the desired electricity, but if this project is implemented, the plant will produce its first electricity no earlier than three to five years . Kabul needs electricity, as they say, since yesterday.
The interest in oil and gas in this scenario is completely understandable.
Hydrocarbons are the main resource for production, everything can be obtained on their basis: from the already mentioned electricity (for which, of course, you will first need to build small and medium-sized power plants) and to the main types of fuel. A country with such a large population and size requires a huge amount of fuel, without which it is impossible to deliver flour to a remote mountain village or to bring building materials to build a hospital.
At the same time, own fuel production is microscopic.
According to the latest published data for 2019, Afghanistan processed only 7.5 thousand barrels of oil per day, that is, about a quarter of a million barrels per year. The request for a million barrels, expressed by the Minister of Commerce, is most likely part of the planned plans for “growth”. The parties are aware that even delivering such a volume of black gold to the territory of Afghanistan is quite problematic, not to mention the fact that there are neither tanks nor processing facilities on site.
But here you must constantly keep in mind that we are talking about an Eastern country with a very particular mentality.
The Afghan minister casually mentioned in his speech that the entire Afghan people are counting on expanding cooperation with Russia. In a purely Eastern allegorical way, the hope was expressed that Moscow would help build houses, schools, hospitals and other necessary things, since it had already done this before.
At this moment, in the comments, as a rule, a polyphonic chorus is heard, indignant that another muftadji wants to land on the Russian door. But the judgment is more emotional than logical.
Even if we assume that Russia really allocated a million barrels of oil to Afghanistan, it would be beneficial for both countries. Currently, our oil sector is under enormous sanctions pressure, and geopolitical opponents are looking for new ways to reduce the export of Russian oil products. The diversion of one-tenth of the day’s production will, of course, not provide a reliable basis for the industry as a whole, but it will set up, so to speak, another reserve channel with the possibility of its almost infinite expansion in the future.
As for the supply of natural gas, here too the Afghans are asking Russia, thanks to its own authority, to complete the construction of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline. In 2019, the laying of the pipe stopped precisely because of the political and military instability in the region. Simply put, because of the increasing hostilities between the Taliban and the pro-American government. Kabul decided to immediately turn to Moscow, which not only supplies TAPI pipes, but is itself interested in diversifying gas supply routes. The Taliban are apparently hoping that Russia will act as a kind of trigger that could restart construction of such an important infrastructure project.
As for the invitation to rebuild houses, schools and roads, it is, to say the least, quite generous – anywhere else in the world countries and corporations would fight to the death for this.
It is a fact that infrastructure construction and restoration projects are valued at many billions of dollars and are backed by state financial guarantees. In fact, it is a government order that is paid for by another country. This scheme is extremely interesting and profitable, which is why it was implemented by the US government in all countries where American bombers flew to introduce democracy.
Freed from the usual standard of living, the states forcibly entered into reconstruction contracts with American companies, paying for the imposed democracy from their own budgets.
We are invited to enter voluntarily. It’s called – feel the difference.
In conclusion, we will only add that, in addition to the strategic security of its southern borders, Russia can also gain a foothold in this previously extremely problematic region. The energy crisis of 2022 in Europe has shown that we are not sitting on the oil and gas needle, while our western neighbors are hanging tight on it. The problem of the latter is that they have chosen the path of confrontation, while the wiser and friendlier will receive a reliable and continuous supply chain of vital resources.
As for the forgotten word “barter”, we will suggest to all skeptics to refresh their school course in geography and familiarize themselves with the list and volume of mineral deposits of Afghanistan, which in an almost intact form are still waiting for miners.
Translation: V. Sergeev
When you see the “fake news” sign, it means that this article is recommended reading!!!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel/top right/:
#Afghanistan #awaits #Russian #invasion #View #Info
