American stock markets closed slightly higher yesterday. Green was also stronger than red in Asia, but it didn’t happen automatically. Futures show a flat (+0.04%) opening for the AEX. The program is full, so let’s get started quickly.
The minutes of the last Fed meeting were released last night. He showed that the majority of Feid officials have confirmed that there will be one in September interest rate reduction coming American stock markets did little, which is partly because investors had already been anticipating an interest rate cut in September. On the other hand, investors will also want to wait a while to see what Powell has to say on Friday.
Today you can count yourself lucky with figures from Alfen, which came online yesterday after trading hours. We also have figures from Aegon and Van Lanschot-Kempen. As a support act for tomorrow’s Jackson Hole scene, the macro figures on the agenda may cause some movement, as everything now counts on a macro level. On offer we have several PMIs, ECB minutes after last night’s Fed minutes and US support requests.
First let’s look at the situation on the markets this morning.
- The AEX is expected to open flat.
- European futures signal a flat open slightly higher.
- Finally Asia closed the flat.
- The CBOE VIX (volatility) index is trading at 16.27.
- The euro / dollar is trading at 1.1143.
- The Dutch ten year interest rate is 2.50%.
- The gold price is slightly lower at $2,504 per troy ounce.
- For a barrel of WTI oil you are now paying $71.75.
- Bitcoin is back above $60k.
Alfen gets a breathing space from the banks
Then to the shortest share on the Dutch stock exchange: Alfen. Alfen will also be the second worst performing sector in 2024 with a negative return of 73.7%. Only Ebusco is doing even worse. Who would have thought that two years ago, when Alfen’s share still cost more than €100… Then interest rates rose and the market went down, so it didn’t take long for Alfen’s weaknesses to emerge the crop Check out these short posts…
The group turned out to be heavily dependent on individual orders and lacked stable cash flow. As if things weren’t bad enough, Alfen issued another big profit warning in June. Not only does communication leave a lot to be desired, each Alfen department also has operational problems. The Smart Grid Solutions branch has quality problems – heat pumps and other power sources.
In the energy storage branch, several contracts have been postponed indefinitely. The Alfen charging station branch is suffering from the slowdown in the growth of electric cars. “We expect normal conditions when sales of electric cars pick up again,” said CEO Marco Roeleveld. But we also know: EV costs will only pick up if EV sales pick up. That may take some time, as many subsidies will not come until the new year.Then we haven’t even talked about the import costs of EVs from China.
But the hottest issue is breaking banking contracts. “This means that a case is still an option on the table,” said analyst Teun Verhagen. Regarding the negotiations with the banks about his contracts, Alfen said they were successful and resulted in a temporary release from the contracts. The company will resume negotiations with the banks about the contracts in the fourth quarter, once the new business plan is ready.
Investors seem to be somewhat relieved. Onward Gateway of commerce Alfen does +9.6%, but that changes a bit. In any case, it gives an indication. With a big wink: if you mirror Alfen’s price list, it’s not that bad.
You can expect the analysis on our website later this morning. Let’s turn now to Aegon’s figures.
Aegon makes a loss
ASR set a good example yesterday by reporting better than expected figures, after which the price rose slightly: +0.09%. Today it is Aegon’s turn. As good as it is, unfortunately it is not possible to directly compare the two as ASR is taking over Aegon’s Dutch operations. As a result, the companies now operate in completely different markets.
The prospects for Aegon are bright. Analysts expect the company to generate less capital in the first half of 2024 than the previous year. On average, capital generation is expected to be €551 million, compared to €620 million in the same period last year.
The figures show that Aegon has generated €588 million in capital. That’s a 5% decrease compared to the €620 million a year earlier, but more than analysts expected. Aegon also recorded a small net loss, amounting to €65 million. Losses on the revaluation of investments to market value and the effects of adjusted assumptions exceeded the operating result, Aegon said.
Van Lanschot-Kempen records higher profits
That wasn’t even all. For example, Van Lanschot-Kempen saw profits rising sharply in the first half of 2024, partly due to large inflows in managed funds. Net profit increased 44% year-on-year to €74.5 million, with a positive contribution from all customer segments.
The Chairman of the Board Maarten Edixhoven spoke about the first half of the year very strongly. “In the face of positive stock market conditions, clients invested more and this contributed to a strong net inflow of assets under management,” said Edinburgh.
Wall Street is turning green
US stock markets closed higher yesterday after the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting showed that the US central bank plans to cut interest rates in September.
The US Labor Department revised down job growth from April 2023 to March 2024 by 818,000 jobs supporting the view that the central bank may need to cut rates even more aggressively to support the economy. Below are the closing scores from last night.
- S&P 500: +0.4%
- Dow Jones: +0.2%
- Nasdaq: +0.6%
Asia is still close to home
Asian stock markets were trading within a range of two tenths of a percent this morning compared to Wednesday’s close. The Bank of Korea kept its key interest rate at 3.5%, as expected. We can’t make it more fun than that.
News
The headlines from Friday’s close:
- 08:00 AEX may open cautiously at the start of Jackson Hole
- 07:31 Van Lanschot Kempen records higher profits
- 07:30 Aegon records defeat
- 07:24 House prices with current owners in the Netherlands continue to rise significantly
- 07:15 Little movement on Asian stock markets
- 07:08 European stock markets open flat
- 06:59 Japan’s economy is growing faster
- August 21 Snowflake dives deeper into the red
- August 21 Zoom Video Communications exceeds its own expectations
- August 21 Wall Street closed higher
- August 21 Fed to cut interest rates in September – Summary
- August 21 Wall Street heads for a higher close
- August 21 European stock markets closed higher
- 21 August Alfen gets a breathing space from the banks
- 21 August ArcelorMittal is developing two solar energy projects in Brazil
Agenda: Thursday, August 22
- 00:00 Start Jackson Hole-symposium
- 07:00 Aegon figures Q2
- 07:00 Alfen Q2 figures
- 07:00 Van Lanschot Kempen figures Q2
- 10:00 EU Purchasing Managers’ Index August
- 1:00 PM Baidu Q2 numbers
- 13:30 ECB minute
- 2:30 PM US aid requests – weekly
- 14:30 Chicago Fed-index juli
- 15:45 US Purchasing Managers’ Index Aug
- 16:00 EU consumer confidence August (vlpg)
- 4:00 PM US Existing Home Sales July
And then this
ETFs are hot!
ETFs are eating the world: Active mutual funds have continued to experience YTD outflows. There have been $220bn of outflows from active funds YTD, compared w/ $284bn of inflows to passive ETFs. In particular, “active” ETFs have experienced $48bn of inflows. (via Goldman) pic.twitter.com/sWMD0NgQFc
– Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 21, 2024
Interesting?
But a hard landing situation with a ceiling around the US elections is also possible. Then you can compare the recent low with August 2007. And then it hit the second time at the 61.8%? We wait patiently again. pic.twitter.com/cd8fUqdKrP
– JDB (@JDB_trading) August 20, 2024
But only for…
Everyone is tall and no one is short. pic.twitter.com/QTS7HrdyRk
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 20, 2024
Falling interest rates and falling dollar? Double celebration for gold!
With the price of gold reaching $2500 per ounce, for the first time, the price of each 400-ounce gold bar has exceeded a million dollars. # Gold #Price of Gold #MillionDollarBar #Investment #Precious metal pic.twitter.com/UN38OkG5lZ
— BitCoinHive (@My_BitCoinHive) August 21, 2024
You van Heumen is the (final) editor. The information in this article is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make specific investments.
2024-08-22 06:10:00
#AEX #Wall #Street #winds #Alfen #figures #arent #bad
