The AEX index is heading for a flat to light green opening after Wall Street took a step back on Tuesday evening, but Chinese tech shares were in demand.
There is not much news on the agenda today. Investors will have to wait another day for real directional news. Then the ECB makes an interest rate decision and Fed chairman Jerome Powell appears in the US Senate. The American jobs report is due a day later.
But that’s not the point yet. Today we have to make do with some minor news, such as a change in the boardroom of Corbion and a small adjustment to the Smallcap index.
The big movements are seen in gold and bitcoin, both of which are moving around record levels. The gold price is benefiting from the expectation that US interest rates are likely to fall later this year. This makes gold – on which you do not earn any interest – more attractive as an investment. Bitcoin investors took some profits off the table yesterday after the cryptocurrency set a new record, but the coin is now recovering.
Lucas Bols from the AScX, NX Filtration in it
It’s March and that means the annual reweighting of the stock indices is approaching. No major adjustments this time. The AEX and AMX remain unchanged. There will be a change in the AScX. NX Filtration, manufacturer of membrane filters for water purification, makes its debut here. This is at the expense of drinks group Lucas Bols, which will leave the stock exchange due to the takeover by Nolet.
NX Filtration is a company we don’t hear much about. The Enschede group issued a turnover warning in January because several orders had been delayed. The rollout of the business plan is also delayed by a year and a half because various projects are taking longer than expected.
A few months ago IEX featured an interesting diptych about this company:
– Part 1: Insiders sold NX Filtration
– Part 2: Long wait for profits from NX Filtration
Hong Kong a positive outlier in lackluster Asia
Most stock markets in Asia were under some pressure last night. The National People’s Congress started in China on Tuesday and that led to some disappointment. The growth target of 5% again for 2024 is seen as unambitious and it was hoped for more support to boost the economy.
A positive outlier is Hong Kong, where tech shares achieved nice gains. Sovereign funds were also reportedly buying to support the market.
Here are the positions of the most important indices at a glance, clocked at 7:55 am:
- Nikkei 225: -0,01%
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: -0,3%
- Hang Seng (Hongkong): +1,4%
- Kospi (South Korea): -0.2%
The tech stocks were in good shape, with the exception of Samsung:
- Alibaba: +2.9%
- Baidu: +1,3%
- Prosus stake Tencent: +1.9%
- TSMC: +0,7%
- Samsung -1,1%.
Wall Street thinks it’s had enough for a while
After Friday’s records, investors on Wall Street seemed to have had enough, with the previously beloved tech stocks in particular falling out of favor. The S&P 500 fell 1% to 5,079 points. The Dow Jones index lost 0.9% and the Nasdaq fell 1.7%.
There was little guiding news. Two purchasing manager indexes for services were published, but – as is often the case – they pointed in different directions. The ISM index indicated less strong growth, while growth in the S&P index actually accelerated. The number of companies that opened their books was few and far between.
Rate pressure Apple and Tesla
However, two Magnificent Seven companies delivered disappointing news for the second day in a row, with investors wondering aloud whether they would still be able to do so. ‘magnificent’ were.
Apple saw iPhone sales in China plummet 24% year-over-year in the first six weeks of this year. The price subsequently fell by 2.4%. Earlier this week, the company was also fined €1.84 billion by the European Commission for ‘unfair trade practices’.
Tesla has also been having a hard time all week. On Monday, this company also appeared to be struggling with disappointing sales figures in China, which led to a share price drop of 7%. Yesterday, another 3.9% fell off the price after it became known that Tesla was forced to halt production at a factory near Berlin after the far-left Vulkangruppe set fire to an electricity pylon, causing a power outage.
And that’s an expensive joke…
TESLA BERLIN FACTORY HEAD: PRODUCTION OUTAGE WILL COST MORE THAN 100M EUROS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 5, 2024
Just like Apple, chip giant Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is also experiencing setbacks in China. The company is being opposed by the US government in its export of an artificial intelligence chip specifically intended for the Chinese market. This was reported by the Bloomberg news agency based on statements from insiders. This had little influence on the price: it fell only fractionally.
Luckily it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Target was rewarded with a 12% share price gain after the American department store chain managed to comfortably exceed profit expectations.
Super Tuesday: no surprises
Yesterday was also Super Tuesday in the US: the day on which primaries were held in 15 states and a third of the electoral votes were distributed in one fell swoop. This led to no surprises. President Joe Biden and his challenger Donald Trump won this election in almost all states, making it likely that they will face off against each other on November 5. Nikki Haley, Trump’s competitor among the Republicans, only won in Vermont.
The indicators:
- European futures indicate a slightly higher open.
- Hong Kong was in good shape last night, the other stock markets were under some pressure.
- The CBOE VIX index (volatility) is rising to 14.46, but that is not yet a level to worry about.
- The euro is fractionally lower at 1.0835 against the dollar.
- A horizontal line at the Dutch ten-year interest rate: 2.59% is shown on the signs. The American is 2 basis points higher and is trading at 4.15%.
- The gold price is fractionally lower at $2,127.31 per troy ounce.
- Oil prices are on the rise. A barrel of WTI now pays $78.39, 0.3% more than yesterday.
- Bitcoin is rebounding and is 4.8% higher at $66,307.86.
The AEX is expected to open flat to slightly higher.
Call: do you have any questions for the IEX Investor Podcast?
At the end of this week there will be recordings for a brand new IEX BeleggersPodcast. If there are any pressing issues you have questions about, you can ask them in the comments below this Pre-Fee or via Spotify. Perhaps your question will then be answered.
News, advice, shorts and agenda
There’s not much new. Corbion nominates a new CFO: Peter Kazius, who has been associated with the company for about ten years. De Telegraaf reports that the government is working on a secret mission, codenamed ‘operation Beethoven’, to keep ASML on board. You can read this in the IEX morning magazine overview, which you will soon find here.
- 08:13 Flat opening of AEX provided
- 08:10 German exports on the rise in January
- 08:07 Cat Rock kleiner in Just Eat Takeaway
- 07:23 Corbion nominates new CFO
- 07:18 Hong Kong stock market positive outlier
- 07:06 Biden and Trump do not surprise on Super Tuesday
- 06:55 European stock markets open higher
- 06:43 Dutch people spent slightly more in January
- 06:40 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:39 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:37 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- March 05 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
- Mar 05 Red numbers on Wall Street
- Mar 05 Oil price falls
- Mar 05 Red numbers on Wall Street
- 05 Mar NX Filtration replaces Lucas Bols at Smallcaps
- 05 Mar European stock markets close lower
- Mar 05 Closing call: AEX continues to fall through the ice after Wall Street’s dark red opening
The AFM reports this shorts.
Advice
No advice or price target changes this morning. Barclays repeats its buy recommendation for Philips and KBC Securities sees no reason to remove TKH from the buy list after yesterday’s figures.
Agenda: ADP Jobs Report and Beige Book
Tomorrow’s agenda is not very spectacular. We shift the focus to our eastern neighbors, where the trade balance is announced and Deutsche Post releases quarterly figures. Sector colleagues Bpost and PostNL have already been there.
European retail sales and the US jobs report from paycheck processor ADP will also be released (which serves as a preview of Friday’s important non-farm Payroll Report). The Beige Book, a report on the state of the American economy that is published eight times a year by the Fed, will be released at 8 p.m.
For real guiding news, we will have to be patient until Thursday and Friday, when the ECB makes a new interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell takes office in the US Senate (both on Thursday) and the US jobs report is published (Friday).
The European interest rate decision itself is not that exciting (the deposit rate will probably remain at 4%), but the explanation could cause some commotion on the stock markets. Curious about what Franck Dixmier, Global CIO Fixed Income at Allianz Global Investors, will be paying attention to and what he expects? Then listen to this one mini-podcast by Jurgen Vluijmans of Backstage Communication.
Here is the full agenda for the rest of the day:
- 11am: EU, January retail sales
- 1:00 PM: Campbell Soup, second quarter results
- 1:00 PM: US, Mortgage Applications – Weekly
- 2:15 PM: US, ADP February jobs report
- 4:00 PM: US, January vacancies
- 4:00 PM: US, January wholesale stocks
- 4:30 PM: US, Oil Stocks – Weekly
- 8:00 PM: US, Federal Reserve Beige Book
IEX Investor Day with Hein Schumacher, CEO of Unilever
Friday, June 28 is the day: the IEX Investor Day 2024 in the Spant theater in Bussum! A day on which you, as a reader of IEX, can gain plenty of knowledge and inspiration for interesting investment opportunities.
It promises to be a beautiful and inspiring day! We are still working on further shaping the program, but the line-up already looks promising. None other than Hein Schumacher, CEO van Unilever, makes its appearance. Also Alexander van der LofCEO of TKH will take the stage. Various investment experts, including Hildo Laman, head of the IEX Investor Desk, will provide you with a lot of background information and buying tips, so you can make better investment decisions.
The presentation is in the hands of journalist Jort Kelder.
Ticket sales started this week. Want to know more about the IEX Investor Day? View the website now.
And then this
Ouch! Musk now has to tolerate not only Bernard Arnault (LVMH), but also Jeff Bezos (Amazon):
OUCH! Elon Musk has fallen to third place in terms of wealth behind Bezos and Arnault. pic.twitter.com/AorOYHVGhu
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 5, 2024
Is bitcoin the digital gold? The correlation is sometimes hard to find
Bad day for fiat money: not only has #Bitcoin reached an ATH today, #Gold is also trading at a record high. pic.twitter.com/ijD6jf8yZC
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 5, 2024
Wow, what a difference:
Do shares provide a little extra risk premium compared to bonds? Well sometimes not at all from 1988 to 2008, after that yes, but actually only in the US.
Total return shares / total return bonds pic.twitter.com/UlXPnAXAM6— Corné van Zeijl (@stock analyst) March 5, 2024
A quick summary of the scenarios for the ECB:
Here it is! Our latest scenario analysis ahead of this week’s ECB meeting, along with details from our team on the potential implications for both FX and rates.
Catch the full article here: pic.twitter.com/W59koTthTT
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) March 4, 2024
Good luck and above all have fun today!
2024-03-06 07:24:12
#AEX #heading #flat #opening #bitcoin #IEX.nl
