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Labor migration is only a partial solution to the aging population and staff shortages. After 2040 it could cause new problems. This is the conclusion of the Migration Advisory Council, an independent advisory board for the government.
The advisory council examined, among other things, what labor migration could mean for the ‘grey pressure’. That is the ratio between workers and retirees in our country. This pressure will increase in the coming years, meaning that we will have to finance collective provisions such as the state pension and healthcare with fewer and fewer people.
Three million additional migrant workers
To keep the gray pressure at the current level, we would have to attract around three million additional migrant workers to our country by 2040. According to the researchers, this is “not realistic”. There are other options to alleviate the gray pressure: for example, everyone could work more in the coming years, or the state pension age could be increased.
To calculate the different options, the researchers used an illustrative figure of 50,000 additional labor migrants who would come to our country annually, in addition to the existing forecasts.
According to the researchers, they would have the same effect as if all workers worked ten minutes longer every year, or if the state pension age were increased by 3.5 months every year.
After ten years, the average working week would have been extended by 1 hour and 40 minutes or the state pension age would have been raised by three years.
It will reach its peak in 2040
But according to the researchers, the balance could also tip if we bring too many migrant workers to the Netherlands. “The problem is that after 2040 we will have passed the peak of aging,” says chairman Monique Kremer of the advisory council. “Once you have attracted a lot of people, you will run into even more problems. Because then we may have too many people for the work that is there.”
If the additional migrants also have children in the Netherlands, the scenario will look even less favorable. Then the skewed ratio between working and non-working people will increase until 2047.
Wages above 40,000 euros
Although labor migrants strengthen the economic growth of the Netherlands, they hardly increase prosperity per capita. This is because the growth must be spread over more people.
Highly educated knowledge migrants, with a gross salary of more than 40,000 euros, contribute most to this prosperity. According to the researchers, migrant workers can be especially useful if they bring knowledge or skills that we lack in the Netherlands, such as specialized nurses or technicians.
They can then provide additional jobs in the Netherlands itself. The researchers give the example of chip machine maker ASML: if foreign technicians are brought to the Netherlands, more administrative employees are needed to support them.
Most migrant workers work in these sectors:
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Knowledge migrants mainly work in business services -
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Migrant workers mainly work through employment agencies
According to the researchers, migrant workers who do simple, low-paid work make a much smaller contribution to the economy. Because they are willing to work for low wages, there is no further incentive for employers to increase wages.
Competing with migrants
Dutch people will therefore no longer apply for these types of jobs. This leads to a vicious circle, in which sectors such as greenhouse horticulture, slaughterhouses and distribution centers become increasingly dependent on cheap labor migrants.
Companies and highly educated employees in particular benefit from this low-paid work. The disadvantages are felt at the bottom of the labor market. There people have to compete with migrants, who are more likely to accept poor wages and working conditions.
The researchers therefore conclude that selective labor migration, in which only migrants with qualities that we do not have at home are admitted, can help the Netherlands until 2040. “When it comes to work that is easy to do, you can also look at people who are already in the Netherlands,” says Kremer.
2023-12-10 23:01:02
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