Dr. Fabian Geyer, managing director of the Flensburg-Schleswig-Eckernförde employers’ association, in an interview about the possible long-term consequences of the corona crisis.
from Julia Gohde
November 02, 2020, 00:00
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Flensburg | As of today, it will be lockdown again for the next four weeks: mask compulsory in busy places, strict contact restrictions and controls, closed restaurants, sports facilities, and much more. The precautionary measures across the country are strict in view of the rising corona numbers. Dr. Fabian Geyer dares to look into the future. What are the current and long-term consequences of Covid-19 for the economy, sport, education and the labor market? An interview with the managing director of the Flensburg-Schleswig-Eckernförde employers’ association.
Dr. Geyer, as a representative of many employers in the region, you have a direct line to the companies. Let’s look at the future of these companies and the labor market – what developments do you anticipate in the medium and long term?
Dr. Fabian Geyer: The effects of the corona crisis are throwing us back economically in many areas. Most previous state bridging grants and grants have to be repaid. This massively restricts companies’ scope for investment. SMEs will not be able to maintain the level of investment of the past few years, even if there is a lot of liquidity in the market: Much that a company has considered useful and sensible is being put on hold. Expenditures are bundled down to the bare minimum, not every modernization can take place. That, in turn, entails a rat tail: Because the medium-sized companies that are active in the field of equipment and implement investments wait in vain for orders that are only hesitant to appear. Many are in deep shock.
And where jobs are missing, employment also suffers …
I agree. I assume that there will be a massive slump in the readiness to hire staff by 2022, although baby boomers will reach retirement age in the next few years. This does not necessarily apply to sectors such as the trades, nursing or hospitals. But in the broad middle class, especially in the industry-related area, the retail trade, with the leisure providers, but also the culture, many companies will consider whether they can not get along with the existing team or less. Personnel is a major cost factor that has to be borne. That in turn depends on the perspective of incoming orders.
I am sure that the brakes will be stepped on here and settings will be limited to the bare minimum.
Dr. Fabian Geyer, Managing Director of the Flensburg-Schleswig-Eckernförde Employers’ Association
Of course, as always, some will benefit from the crisis, but the majority of companies that are affected in their field of business will go through an unprecedented low for one to two years and of course save costs. This is at the expense of the labor market.
That sounds like bad outlook for the young?
Yes, they are right to be concerned. Let’s just take the areas of tourism, hotel and catering: The next few months and years will show which employers are still on the market and whether there are enough training places available. It’s hard to say, but I’m rather skeptical. After all, training positions are cost factors that companies will pay attention to. Normality like in February 2020 will not be achieved in the next few years. There is simply a lack of equity everywhere. Nevertheless, you have to make every effort to give young people and companies a perspective. I fear, however, that desperation will cause many to flock to the universities and study senselessly there.
Especially with younger people, education goes hand in hand with sport. If team or indoor sports are restricted, what can that mean with a view to the future?
First of all, this means that the lack of exercise is increasing among adolescents, which will have long-term health consequences. You can see joggers everywhere, but team sports, competitions, and shared experiences are missing. Team sport has the advantage that you motivate each other to go to training. I hope that the desire to meet together after school and stay active and sporty outside will remain. Unfortunately, people also get used to laziness and indolence. Reactivating yourself is not easy. All age groups are affected. It will be difficult to set up popular sport in the future as it was before, since sports clubs too have to fear large financial deficits due to dwindling membership fees. Then there is the social aspect: if you haven’t had a common experience with others for a long time, you focus too much on yourself. I think that will have a massive impact on our society.
Social distance, distrust of strangers and not approaching others, this can manifest itself in the mind, and solidarity suffers as a result. I think that’s extremely dangerous. This is one of the worst negative consequences of the corona crisis.
Dr. Fabian Geyer, Managing Director of the Flensburg-Schleswig-Eckernförde Employers’ Association
A few days ago it was announced that the Heide refinery would like to cut more than 100 jobs. Do we have to expect more such reports in the future?
Large parts of the industry are suffering massive damage from the current economic crisis. Shipping companies, the steel, metal and chemical industries suffer enormously. The more than 100 jobs that are to be cut at the Heide refinery are jobs that are difficult to rebuild. In addition, we have not been able to develop branches of industry such as the manufacture of wind power and solar systems in Germany as hoped.
Germany has always been an industrial and export country, a world market leader, but I fear that the development of deindustrialization can hardly be stopped.
Dr. Fabian Geyer, Managing Director of the Flensburg-Schleswig-Eckernförde Employers’ Association
We will lose important know-how in the long term. And what is lost once cannot be regained. That is why we need an offensive towards a much more industry-friendly policy. We have to think about which industrial business areas we not only want to keep in Germany, but also expand and develop. But in politics I currently hardly see any experts who take up this and try to implement it. Far too often, the powerful lobby of environmental politics surrenders without admitting objective factual arguments. I am very concerned about that. Well-paid jobs and entire value chains from medium-sized companies depend on industry – also with us.
Which areas of the economy will grow in the future in contrast to some branches of industry?
We are on the way to a digitized service society, which is a broad term from simple activities to highly specialized services. In the IT industry we will experience an even greater upswing in the next few years and decades and have an increased demand for workers, for example in the area of programming technical solutions. Highly specialized skills and training are required here. In addition, craft and commercial leisure activities will gain in importance. I hope that everyone understands that without the craft we cannot implement anything that is planned. We will only get stuck with theoretically acting people who write concepts or come up with projects. Someone has to put it into practice after all.
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