International•1 Jan ’24 10:00 Author: Jorn Lucas
Where Ukraine previously managed to recapture certain areas, we now only see the liberation of a few villages and a few kilometers of territory at the front. However, that does not mean the failure of the Ukrainian army, thinks Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee. ‘We are in a war that, according to the Russians, would last no more than three days. That alone is impressive, because it means that the large, powerful Russian army has not been able to subdue the relatively small Ukrainian army.”
However, the initial reluctance to provide military support from the West, both from the Netherlands and Germany, did have an effect on the battle. ‘If that had happened faster, we would have helped Ukraine. That is certainly the case,” says Bauer, who can understand the slow onset of support. “You’re talking about advanced weapon systems with advanced technology, and you also have to wonder what happens if that technology gets into the hands of the Russians.”
Brain drain
According to Bauer, Ukraine has now reconquered 50 percent of the territory that the Russians initially occupied. In addition, the military losses on the Russian side are many times greater than on the Ukrainian side. For example, the Russian naval fleet has been severely damaged with drones and missiles, ‘while Ukraine has no functional navy.’ Add to that the thousands of dead, the destroyed tanks and armored vehicles and the more than one million Russians who fled. ‘There also is a brain drain going on in Russia.”
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“There is a brain drain going on in Russia.”
Rob Bauer, admiral
That is not something to be proud of, especially when countries such as North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and China are among the friendly nations, Bauer believes. “The Russians are becoming increasingly politically isolated, they have mortgaged their country in China and they are under economic pressure.”
Brain dead
The war also had another effect, indirectly. In 2023, NATO appears to be alive and well and of great importance to many countries. ‘That is partly because NATO has returned to its core task: collective defense.’ That process has already been started before, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. ‘The military part of NATO started rewriting the military strategy in 2018. In that document, Russia is again addressed as a threat for the first time in decades.’
Where Ukraine previously managed to recapture certain areas, we now only see the liberation of a few villages and a few kilometers of territory at the front. However, that does not mean the failure of the Ukrainian army, thinks Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee. ‘We are in a war that, according to the Russians, would last no more than three days. That alone is impressive, because it means that the large, powerful Russian army has not been able to subdue the relatively small Ukrainian army.” (Unsplash)
The NATO flag was a lot different four years ago, when French President Macron declared the alliance brain dead. In that respect, a comparison with virology is valid, thinks Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee. The importance of virologists has always been great, but this professional group generally operated in the shadows. ‘Due to the corona pandemic, everyone got to know the virologists and it seems as if virologists have become more important. But of course that is not the case.’ NATO is now no less important than before. The image of public opinion has changed.
Russia as a partner
And that is a big change, Bauer emphasizes. In fact, until the July 2022 NATO summit in Madrid, NATO considered Russia a partner. ‘We’ve been trying to work with the Russians for 20 years. That has changed because of the behavior of the Russians.’ By this, Bauer is referring, among other things, to events in 2008 and 2014, when parts of Georgia and Crimea in Ukraine were captured, respectively. And of course the invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
‘We tried to work with the Russians for 20 years’
Rob Bauer, admiral
The question is whether, looking back on those three events, NATO underestimated Russia. According to Bauer, it took “quite a long time” before everyone was fully convinced that Putin would really invade Ukraine. “We couldn’t imagine that he would actually do it,” despite months of troop build-up on the border with Ukraine. ‘We saw the troops, the logistics, the ammunition and the hospitals. The blood came ten days before the raid, and blood is a decent indicator.’ And even then, according to Bauer, there were NATO members who did not think an invasion was possible. According to Bauer, the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was one of them may also have had strategic reasons. ‘You don’t want panic to break out among the population. And on the day of the invasion, 40 percent of the Ukrainian economy evaporated.”
Trump
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 could then have the same effect on NATO as the corona pandemic had on virologists. The alliance is still experiencing the consequences of a much longer-running discussion about money. ‘When NATO was founded, it was agreed that no member state should bear more than 50 percent of the costs, but the United States at one point bore more than 70 percent of the costs.’ Only in 2014, during a summit in Wales, was it decided that each Member State should work towards a contribution worth 2 percent of gross domestic product. ‘We must be able to defend ourselves collectively and you need money for that. The 2 percent is now the floor, and not the ceiling, of the necessary expenditure.’
Also read | ‘NATO must continue to support Ukraine, otherwise Putin will win’
‘The 2 percent is now the floor, and not the ceiling’
Rob Bauer, admiral
While the war in Ukraine has now lasted almost two years, the support of the West is still there. But this is slowly crumbling among individual NATO member states. According to Bauer, the fact that Finland, and soon also Sweden, have joined the alliance confirms the seriousness of the current situation. ‘Because it’s about something we’re also talking about with Ukraine. This is not just about the fact that Ukraine wants its territory back, but also about concepts such as sovereignty, neutrality and respect for internationally recognized borders.’ According to the admiral, this has led both countries to submit applications to become members of NATO.
Also read | Last border crossing between Finland and Russia closed
Unacceptable
This has not yet stopped Russia from continuing the fight in Ukraine, more is needed. ‘The Russians have made it clear that they are not just interested in Ukraine, but in fact about going back to the 1997 borders. This means that all countries that have joined since then can be attacked. That is unacceptable for those countries and for us as an alliance.’
2024-01-01 09:00:08
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