Aug 10, 2023 at 8:01 PM Update: 2 minutes ago
From Scandinavia to Greece, people are experiencing extreme weather this summer. Due to climate change, this is becoming the rule rather than the exception. “Adapting to climate change is inevitable. We just have to do that,” says climate scientist Marjolijn Haasnoot to NU.nl.
We just have to get used to it, because due to climate change we are increasingly confronted with forest fires, floods and mudslides. “What is happening now is in line with expectations in terms of climate extremes,” explains Sem Vijverberg. He is a researcher of climate extremes at the Institute for Environmental Issues at VU University Amsterdam.
The most recent climate report by the UN climate panel IPCC states that the various consequences of climate change can also reinforce each other. Haasnoot: “If you have a dry spring, you have a greater chance of forest fires afterwards. If you then have more extreme precipitation, you also have a greater chance of mudslides.”
“I think there are sufficient indications that extreme weather is increasing,” adds Associate Professor Chiel van Heerwaarden (Wageningen University). He specializes in clouds, but also knows a lot about the weather. Because it is warmer, showers become more intense. Warm air can hold more water. “When you have a mood, it is just a bit more extreme.”
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Not more, but especially more intense forest fires
The number of forest fires is not increasing, but they are more intense, says biologist Rudy Van Diggelen of the University of Antwerp. “There’s a lot of fluctuation in it. And over the past 40 years, there’s been a tendency for it to decrease.”
The feeling that there are more wildfires may be due to the places where they rage and the media attention they receive. “At the moment there are very large fires in Siberia, but you don’t hear much about that in the news.”
Because it is getting drier and hotter, there is a chance that more forest fires will start in the future. This means that ‘the fuel’ accumulates. “One spark and it flies in the fire.”
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Can we still reverse it?
From a physical point of view, the weather extremes of today can still be reversed if we take drastic measures, such as immediately stopping the emission of greenhouse gases.
But that is not going to happen, emphasizes Vijverberg. “This is possible from a purely physical point of view, but given the policy reality it is actually not feasible.” Moreover, it would then take hundreds of years before it actually gets cooler. This is because the ocean also has an influence on it and lags behind the atmosphere.
Haasnoot adds that we can strongly limit further global warming. In the most favorable scenario, it will remain at 1.5 degrees Celsius. With that we can stop the further increase of extremes. “We are now at 1.1 degrees of warming and that is already resulting in more extreme weather.”
Vijverberg: “Those weather extremes are of course very annoying, but my personal big fear are the tipping points.” Those tipping points are the moments when systems change irreversibly and relatively quickly. For example, if the ecosystems in the Amazon region are damaged beyond repair or if a piece of the West Antarctic ice sheet melts.
“Then you are talking – over a period of hundreds of years – about meters of sea level rise.” It is unclear how far we are from such a tipping point. This is because these processes are very complex and difficult to predict.
We can arm ourselves against the consequences
The weather extremes are therefore difficult to stop, but we can limit the consequences. “The great thing is that there are various measures we can take,” says Haasnoot. She works at the Deltares knowledge institute and Utrecht University and has contributed to the climate reports of the IPCC. In it she focuses on ways to adapt to the consequences of climate change.
For example, temporary water storage areas, dykes and walls can prevent flooding in hilly areas. Van Diggelen explains that the impact of forest fires is reduced if we plant native tree species that are more resistant to fire. Like cork oaks instead of eucalyptus trees in southern Europe.
According to Haasnoot, if climate change gets worse, we should mainly implement plans that will also be useful in the future.
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‘Warning is a reasonably cheap measure’
One of the easiest measures with which we can quickly improve our protection is to improve warning systems, says Haasnoot. “Warning is a measure that is reasonably cheap and can be implemented fairly quickly.”
By making alerts more specific, people know exactly what to expect. “Especially for extreme precipitation, that works very well.” How high does the water rise at which location and what measures can you take? For example, are sandbags in front of the houses enough or is evacuation necessary?
Haasnoot knows that many countries already have plans to adapt to climate change. But the implementation lags behind. The climate is also changing faster than expected. That is why she recommends speeding up the adjustments and also further reducing greenhouse gas emissions. “It’s now a matter of accelerating both.”
2023-08-10 18:01:00
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